ANC to stay in power for long while

THE South African democracy is in its infancy and that means instability is inevitable and an integral part of the process. Being a young democracy also means that voters are learning how to vote and citizens are learning how to exist productively in said democracy.

In the last election the ruling party in South Africa, the African Nation Congress (ANC) won 62.15% of the votes. The leading opposition, the Democratic Alliance (DA), won 22.23% and a new party, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) won 6.35%.

The rest of the votes were distributed among the other parties in SA. We have a proportional representation system, so everyone gets a seat if they win the votes.

Our national elections take place every five years, and the president is able to stay in power for two terms, which means that one person can, in many ways, define a nation for a decade.

I don ’ t see the ANC losing a national election for the next two decades – at least. Let ’ s do the calculation and some guesswork.

If the ANC loses 5% of the vote in every election that totals 20% loss over 20 years. Which means they ’ ll go down to about 40% of the votes. Let us, then, assume that 10% of the ANC ’ s previous votes go to the DA (now about 30%) and 10% to the EFF (that ’ s 16%).

This means that the ANC still has a majority 20 years from now, and they still hold power. Only by 2030 might we see a new ruling party in South Africa. Sidwell Tshingilane

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