Elites must prioritise the country
A coalition government needs to put aside political power play
South Africa’s municipal government elections in 2021 produced a number of largely unstable local government coalitions. There’s now a strong possibility that the next government that’s formed at national level may also be a coalition. This would be the first since the dawn of democracy in 1994.
Elections due in 2024 will test the extent of the declining dominance of the governing African National Congress. Some polls suggest the party could fail to secure the 50% of the vote required to form a government. With no other party tipped to meet the threshhold, there might have to be a coalition instead.
Can South Africans expect a national coalition to be stable? The turbulence in coalitions seen in 2021-2022 suggests not. The disintegration and reconstitution of municipal coalitions in the past year indicate that many parties are using them as a political battleground. The result is a lack of attention to actually governing cities and providing municipal services.
A host of international cases provide insights into what’s needed for successful coalition building. Austria, Germany, Japan, Malaysia and Chile are examples. But coalition building isn’t always plain sailing. So, what helps or hinders coalitions?
My own research on the international experience of coalition politics shows that South Africa can learn from the conditions in which coalitions elsewhere have been conducive to stable and accountable democratic government.
First, coalitions work where there are minimal ideological differences between parties. Second, it can be hard to build strong coalitions in countries that have a dominant party that’s been in power for a long time. This leads to a third factor: weak and fragmented opposition parties. Smaller, weaker parties are more likely to be narrowly opportunistic or lack ideological coherence.
South Africa faces all three problems, and its current political and institutional dynamics are unlikely to cultivate stable and accountable coalitions.
But there is a possible route to stable coalition building. International experience suggests that what tips the balance in favour of stable coalitions is the willingness of political elites to prioritise collective interest over political opportunism.
Parts of Western Europe, such as Austria and Germany, have seen “grand coalitions”. Under this arrangement, governments are composed of the two largest parties in the parliamentary system.
Latin America has experienced “rainbow coalitions”. In Chile a multiplicity of different parties has united to form a governing alliance. For its part Brazil has historically seen a considerable number of “oversized coalitions”.
The establishment of a system that can help manage differences is fundamental to maintaining coalitions. Globally,
the establishment of coalition committees or councils has been critical for resolving disputes, mutual supervision and accountability.
Underpinning the success of these institutions and processes is the second determining factor: the values of political elites. The history of successful coalitions in Germany and Denmark shows that political culture and the values of party leaders matter. This culture needs to include an inclination for deliberation and mediation. Added to these is willingness to prioritise collective interest.
Third, the strength of surrounding institutions is important. Parliamentary scrutiny and legislative debate play a crucial role in ensuring accountability.
Fourth, stable and accountable coalitions engage party members and supporters in decision-making processes.
The possibility of a national coalition government in South Africa is approaching. The ability of political elites to prioritise collective interest over political power play will be a key determinant of coalition dynamics.