Nationalist Scots to shake up polls
ELECTION: SNP MAY WIN ALL 59 SCOTTISH SEATS
Labour’s popularity is on the wane due to three main factors.
Edinburgh
Scottish nationalists are on course to make historic gains in Thursday’s general election and win unprecedented influence in Westminster, ironically energised by their defeat in last year’s independence referendum.
Over 55% of Scots said “No” when asked “should Scotland become an independent country?” in September, seemingly delivering a hefty blow to the Scottish National Party (SNP).
But the party has regrouped and gained strength from anger at budget austerity. Combative SNP leader Alex Salmond stepped down after the defeat, to be replaced by Nicola Sturgeon, who has even won supporters south of the border.
Since the independence vote, the party’s membership has quadrupled to over 100 000. The tartan army now tops poll after poll in Scotland and according to an Ipsos Mori survey for Scottish Television, could grab all 59 Scottish seats, an increase of 53 since 2010.
“This will be the first time this has happened at a Westminster election,” said Gerry Hassan, an expert on Scottish politics. “Taken with their control of the Scottish parliament and Labour’s loss of local government dominance, it indicates a sea change in politics north of the border,” he said.
Robin McAlpine, director of the think-tank Common Weal, identified three factors in Labour’s demise: unfulfi lled promises to the region under Tony Blair, losing control of the Scottish parliament and its role in the campaign to preserve the union.
Defeat for Labour on Scottish turf would have serious consequences at Westminster, the seat of Britain’s parliament. Deprived of a rich source of MPs, Labour leader Ed Miliband would have little choice but to work with the SNP to oust Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron.
The Tories have used this potential match-up to attack Labour in England, warning voters a Miliband government would be propped up by a party that wants to break up the UK. Miliband has hit back by ruling out a deal of “any kind” or the presence of SNP ministers in a Labour government. –