New energy plan is here
UPDATED: HOPES FOR MODERN, CLEAN POWER
What to look out for.
The South African Ministry of Energy will release an updated electricity plan this month. Analysts are hoping it will launch the country’s power sector into a modern, sustainable, clean power future, and that outdated and financially unfeasible facets of previous plans will be laid to rest.
The intention was to update the country’s Integrated Resource Plan every two years. But the last plan, adopted in 2011, is already seven years old. It envisaged a substantial increase in electricity demand from 39GW in 2010, to 68GW in 2030. The extra capacity was to come from an additional 9.6GW of nuclear power, 17.6GW from solar and wind renewable technologies (which were new at the time) and 6.3GW from new coal plants.
Draft revisions were prepared in 2013 and 2016. They lowered the long-term forecast for electricity consumption, expanded the proportion of renewable energy in the mix and postponed the construction of new nuclear plants, even suggesting that these might not be needed at all.
The less steep electricity consumption growth rates are a consequence of technological improvements allowing better energy efficiency and the sluggishness of the mining sector.
Government never ratified the updates. There was speculation that this was because they undermined the strategy favoured by the administration under Jacob Zuma, to expand nuclear power rapidly.
Electricity consumption projections are a lot lower now than the 2011 plan expected them to be. Even the 2016 draft projected that long-term electricity demand would be about 30% lower than estimated five years earlier.
Ten years ago, power cuts were common. Now, with lower demand, there is a substantial surplus of electricity. SA has also been affected by better energy efficiency strategies that have led to energy consumption remaining steady – or even falling.
Does the new energy plan foresee even lower electricity demand growth rates?
Closing the coal power plants?
The new one will provide greater clarity on the future importance of coal.
As a signatory of the Paris Agreement on climate change, South Africa has committed to reducing carbon emissions. This implies it will gradually close most of the existing ageing coal plants. Trade unions are gearing up for a fight against potential job losses should this happen.
One would expect the new plan to show when all major coal plants will close, except for the new Medupi and Kusile plants. Closing plants rapidly would signal a serious effort to meet Paris Agreement emission targets. Longer lifespans would signify a concession to the labour sector.
It will be interesting to see if there are any indications that Medupi and Kusile may not be developed to full capacity. That’s an option for saving costs.
And will the plan make provision for more nuclear plants to come online, or will nuclear be taken out of the mix altogether?
The falling cost of renewable energy has changed the energy sector globally. Solar and wind power generation is steadily expanding in most countries.
The chief argument against wind and solar technologies is no longer cost, but rather their dependence on weather and the day-night cycle.
It’s now possible that a country could get all its power from renewable energy. Costa Rica may become the first to do so.
It’s unlikely that SA’s new energy plan will commit to 100% renewable power in the foreseeable future, but energy analysts will be keen to see the target for 2050.
Another point to look out for is cost projections for renewable power. The 2016 plan failed to base its projections on a steady downward cost trend. The new plan is expected to rectify this shortcoming, boosting the prospects for renewable energy.
Hartmut Winkler is a professor of Physics at the University of Johannesburg