No new nuclear, little new coal

NEW ENERGY PLAN: MORE RENEWABLES, GAS AHEAD

Number of factors changed significantly since IRP2010..

volumes with nuclear providing about 4%. That is due to the intermittent nature of the other technologies.

Minister of Energy Jeff Radebe said a number of assumptions have changed significantly since the publication of the IRP2010. Electricity demand continues to decline and is 30% lower than anticipated in the IRP2010. Eskom’s generation fleet is underperforming against the IRP2010 assumption of 80% plant availability.

Additional generation capacity of 18 000MW has been committed to, including coal, pumped storage and renewables. Most of it has already been connected to the grid and the balance will be by 2022. The cost of new technologies has declined significantly.

Radebe said beyond 2030 the energy mix would change significantly due to the decommissioning of older coal plants. The department would undertake studies to inform the energy mix after 2030 and up to 2050.

These include socioeconomic impact analysis of the decommissioning of coal plants, a study of gas supply options, an analysis of appropriate levels of renewables

and other clean technologies like clean coal and nuclear. In drafting the IRP2018, the department used a least-cost plan as a starting point. On a least-cost basis, the plan provides for only photovoltaic, wind and gas generation.

After the comment period, the final IRP2018 will go to cabinet and should be published before year-end.