600 000 jobs could be at risk

Frankfurt am Main – A British departure from the European Union without a deal could put 600 000 jobs around the world at risk, with Germany the hardest hit, a study published yesterday found.

Researchers at the IWH institute in Halle, eastern Germany, examined what would happen if UK imports from the remaining EU fell 25 percent after Brexit.

They reckoned that some 103 000 jobs would be under threat in Europe’s largest economy Germany and 50 000 in France.

Being affected by Brexit would not necessarily mean workers were laid off, the economists noted. “Given the lack of skilled labour in many advanced economies, firms could also try to keep staff on by cutting hours or opening new markets,” they said.

A “hard” departure without a deal would see tariffs imposed at the border, “tangling up global supply chains,” study co-author Oliver Holtemoeller said in a statement.

The economists focused only on trade in goods and services, leaving out other possible economic impacts of Brexit like changes to investment flows.

They noted that “since markets are linked up across the globe, suppliers based outside the European Union are also affected” by a no-deal Brexit.

Within the 27 remaining EU countries, almost 180 000 posts at firms directly exporting to the UK would be at risk.

But 433 000 more workers in the EU and around the world would be affected, as their employers sell to companies who in turn export to Britain. For example, the study found some 60 000 workers in China and 3 000 in Japan could lose their jobs. –