Unenvious task awaits Mboweni

Tito Mboweni seldom has doubts about his own importance – and he is going to need all that self-confidence this week when he tries to pull the proverbial financial rabbit out of the hat in his first budget. Whether he and the other leaders in the ANC notice it or not, the country is an economic mess.

The rand is under severe pressure, unemployment is still appalling, business confidence is low and, by the way, government needs to come up with a R100 billion guarantee to prevent the lights from going out permanently at Eskom at the end of April.

So, one would think, once again, the long-suffering middle class – as taxpayers and consumers – will bear the brunt of whatever measures the government needs to implement to at least start pulling the country back from the brink.

But, here’s the good news: it’s an election year. And no politician is going to risk prescribing harsh medicine for their potential voters with the polls just around the corner.

So, Mboweni is unlikely to do things like increase tax rates, or impose surcharges on taxpayers, to help bring in money.

There will probably be more increases to money-raising mechanisms like the fuel levy and “sin taxes” on cigarettes and alcohol.

There will have to be cuts to government expenditure so, in the end, a lot of people (not the rich, of course) will suffer.

Government simply employs too many civil servants at great cost. Heads will have to roll … although this will probably only happen after the election, once votes are in the bag.

Once the ANC has won, which is inevitable, stand by for the real pain.

E-tolls defaulters could be pursued and more indirect taxes could be levied.

Politicians are, after all, politicians.