Did Cyril make a difference?

2024: NEXT NATIONAL ELECTION WILL PROVIDE ANSWER

What is clear is that the future of Gauteng’s political dispensation is in the balance.

How can the ANC’s results be understood at this very early stage after the elections? President Cyril Ramaphosa was very much the focus of the ANC’s campaign, mainly because of his proven popularity. For the first time, the ANC’s campaign strategy also included a presidential campaign (“Ramaphosa for President – the people’s choice”). In contrast, the DA focused only on campaigns for the provincial premier candidates.

Did Ramaphosa fail or succeed in renewing the ANC’s popular support? Two benchmarks are available for its test: its 53.9% at the 2016 municipal election and its 62.2% at the 2014 national election. What does the latest 57.5% therefore mean?

One possible analysis is that during the period 1994-2006, the ANC did worse in municipal elections (1995, 2000, 2006) than in the national elections (1994, 1999, 2004). It means that after every municipal election, it could increase its electoral support again.

After 2006, the ANC lost this ability to recover from their electoral performances. The significance of the 2019 elections is that it has broken this trend of the past 13 years. It is the first time the ANC could move above the previous municipal election level. For Ramaphosa to return to the positive 1994-2006 trend, it will require that at the next municipal election, in

2021, its national total will have to be above 54%.

That will sustain a turnaround that Ramaphosa has started with this election. It will only be completed if in five years’ time the ANC can reach 60% again in the national election.

A quick look suggests the election produced four categories within the party. The first being the real performers with more than 70% support: the president’s province Limpopo, the deputy president’s province Mpumalanga and the Eastern Cape.

The second category is the above-average, 60 percenters: the North West and the Free State. The third is the average, 50 percenters: the Northern Cape and KZN.

Last are the strugglers: Gauteng and the Western Cape.

Significant is the demise of KZN. Here, the ANC lost in this election almost 10 percentage points of its support, while the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) benefitted from it by increasing with 6.8 percentage points.

The political landscape has become more diverse with the ANC, Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), Democratic Alliance (DA) and EFF all developing constituencies of their own.

For former president Zuma and his supporters it is bad news. It will reduce KZN’s influence in the ANC dramatically. Ironically, the same has now happened with the Western Cape in the DA.

The Freedom Front Plus (FF+) received much attention with its success in eroding the DA’s support in several provinces. The North West stands out, while the FF+’s votes in Gauteng increased substantially. Gauteng is the breadbasket of the party’s national votes and therefore explains its increase. The dynamics between the DA and FF+ supporters still have to be analysed as part of the shifts registered in this election.

The future of Gauteng’s political dispensation is in the balance. Together with the significance of the much lower voter turnout, Gauteng’s political uncertainty will be regarded as this election’s main message.

Dirk Kotze is professor of politics at the department of political sciences, Unisa