ANC quarrels ‘affect society’
ISS STUDY: PROBLEMS LEAD TO PROTESTS
More unrest seen during Ramaphosa’s presidency because Zuma used ‘brown envelope’ politics.
President Cyril Ramaphosa’s inability to exercise total control of his party – unlike his predecessor Jacob Zuma – as protests spiked during his tenure, was due to patronage with Zuma using “brown envelope” politics to maintain peace.
This is according to a report by the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) titled “Dangerous Elites: Protest, Conflict and the Future of South Africa”, which found the “unmanageable” structures and processes of the ANC’s factions spilled into society, causing protests and unrest.
A link between ANC events and intense internal contestation led to a rise in “community-related” and political protests, the report found.
An example is the firing of Pravin Gordhan as finance minister in March 2017, which correlated with a spike in protests in July of that year and organisations like Save South Africa, along with opposition parties and organisations, marching to the Union Buildings.
Public unrest and protests had remained quiet during Zuma’s second term but saw a sharp rise from end-2017, suggesting that Ramaphosa did not have the same autocratic power over the ANC as Zuma did, said ISS.
But the issue at play was Ramaphosa’s attempt to clean up government and deal with corruption within the ANC, which antagonised certain individuals.
Political economy analyst and director of Political Futures Consultancy Daniel Silke said the report was an accurate reflection of the issues. “I think the issue is that… in the Ramaphosa presidency there is an attempt to reduce patronage-based politics, or what we call brown-paper envelope politics, which we saw under Zuma.
“There has been an attempt to clean up government, there has been an attempt to try and eradicate some of the internal corruption that has been part for the better part of the past decade, if not longer.
“Once you begin to reform or clean up your own political party, clearly you antagonise those individuals who have enjoyed free rein as they had during the Zuma years,” said Silke.
The report plotted protests, changes in service delivery and unemployment against the chronology of ANC events. “The coincidence between escalation of protests and moments of ANC drama was clear and straightforward,” it said.
July 2017 saw a spike in protests, particularly in Tshwane, following events that led to the Cabinet reshuffle that removed Gordhan and his deputy, Mcebisi Jonas. This was also a period when former presidents, including Thabo Mbeki and Kgalema Motlanthe, called for Zuma to go.
In addition, the “Guptagate” scandal surfaced during that period.
Protests had a similar pattern in KwaZulu-Natal in 2016, when the National Prosecuting Authority was considering whether to charge Zuma with corruption. Then, the Constitutional Court judgment on Nkandla and a motion to impeach Zuma saw protests in the build-up and aftermath of the 2019 elections.
And the most recent violence was the July 2021 unrest, which a Report of Expert Panel into the July 2021 Unrest confirmed was a result of Zuma’s imprisonment. There was a clear decline in protests in the major metros of Tshwane, Joburg, Cape Town, eThekwini and Nelson Mandela Bay during Zuma’s second term.
The findings are nothing new and for a long time analysts and experts have been writing about the effects of ANC’s instability. Instead, a warning should be taken from the ANC that it was a counter-revolution, said security expert Eldred de Klerk.
Silke, like the ISS, predicts the situation is going to worsen. He said it was time for Ramaphosa to take a stand.
“If his victory remains messy like the last time, you will see this continuing,” said Silke. “He has to stamp his authority and has to elect other ‘Ramaphosas’ of the world.”
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