Macron takes eyes off the elections ball

– Candidates in France’s looming presidential election pushed at the weekend to make themselves heard over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with a re-run of 2017’s final showdown still the most likely outcome.

Buoyed in part by his shuttle diplomacy ahead of the conflict and toughness on Moscow since the tanks began to roll, liberal incumbent Emmanuel Macron is riding high in the polls with two weeks to go.

But as the president “is totally absorbed by the international crisis, it’s very difficult to be present and to campaign”, a source close to him told AFP on condition of anonymity.

Short of a major upset, his opponent in the run-off will be farright National Rally leader Marine Le Pen, exactly the same as five years ago.

A trio of candidates – farright rival Eric Zemmour, conservative Valerie Pecresse and left-winger Jean-Luc Melenchon – still hope they can break out from the pack and take on Macron in the second round.

“Everything could be decided in the two weeks to come, they could count double,” Adelaide Zulfikarpasic of the BVA Opinion polling group said. “Four out of 10 voters who say they are certain to cast their ballot are still undecided” on a candidate, she said.

Brawl on the right

Yesterday, Zemmour hoped to rally up to 50 000 people a stone’s throw from the Eiffel Tower in Paris, bussing in supporters from other parts of France.

“This will be the event of the campaign, the biggest gathering,” he told Sud Radio on Friday, insisting that “since the beginning, my meetings have touched off the greatest excitement”.

Yet Zemmour, a former columnist and TV commentator, has fallen below the 10% mark in some polls. That is far short of support ranging around 20% for Le Pen and close to 30% for Macron.

The National Rally leader strove to project serenity as members of her own camp, including her niece Marion Marechal, deserted her for tougher-talking Zemmour.

Instead, Le Pen has campaigned on French streets and market squares, and urged potential Zemmour voters to back her if she reaches the second round, as forecast.

“No one owns their voters,” she told M6 television, adding, “I hope if I’m in the second round they’ll join us.”

With Zemmour and Le Pen slogging it out for the hardright vote and Macron sounding pro-business and law-and-order notes, conservative Pecresse has struggled to make herself heard and a positive Covid test kept her from planned campaign stops in western France and the southeast.

Melenchon, polling at 12 to 15%, was rallying supporters in Marseilles yesterday. –