Above 1.5ºC in 5 years 48% likely

Geneva – There is an even chance that global temperatures will temporarily breach the benchmark of 1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels in one of the next five years, the United Nations warned yesterday.

The 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change saw countries agree to cap global warming at “well below” 2ºC above levels measured between 1850 and 1900 – and 1.5ºC if possible.

“The chance of global near-surface temperature exceeding 1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels at least one year between 2022 and 2026 is about as likely as not,” the UN’s World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) said in an annual climate update.

The WMO put the likelihood at 48% and said it was increasing with time.

An average temperature of 1.5ºC above the pre-industrial level across a multiyear period would breach the Paris aspirational target. There is a 93% chance of at least one year between 2022-2026 becoming the warmest on record, said the WMO.