Putin’s push ‘won’t change outcome’

LOSING GRIP: CALLS ON 300 000 RUSSIAN RESERVISTS

White House takes Moscow’s nuclear force threat ‘very seriously’.

Western experts predicted on Wednesday that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s new troop mobilisation would prolong the war but not change the balance on the ground.

They warned against downplaying his renewed nuclear threat.

Putin announced the call-up of 300 000 reservists – more than the nearly 200 000 mustered to invade Ukraine in February – after his troops have lost significant parts of territory seized early in the war.

It came as Moscow signalled it was determined to keep occupied territories in eastern and southern Ukraine by holding local referendums to absorb them into Russia.

Analysts said it was a risky move for the Russian leader.

“They will not be able to do this well,” said Dara Massicot, a Russia defence specialist at Rand Corp who has researched the mobilisation process.

“They will cobble together people and send them into the front with old training, poor leadership, equipment in even worse shape than the active duty force, and send them in piecemeal because they don’t have time to wait.”

But Michael Kofman, a defence specialist at the Centre for a New American Security, a Washington think-tank, cautioned against dismissing the effort. “It may extend the Russian ability to sort of sustain this war, but not change the overall trajectory and outcome.”

Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, said: “This war is going to be increasingly fought by volunteers on the Ukrainian side who are motivated... and on the Russian side, we’re going to see a larger share of people who do not want to be there.”

Mick Ryan, a retired Australian general, said Putin wanted to “prolong the war and outwait western nations”.

More concerning was Putin’s threat to use nuclear force against any menace to Russia’s “territorial integrity”.

White House national security spokesperson John Kirby said: “We take it very seriously.”

This is more about rotation and replacements