Marcus set for Guineas win
TRICKY: EVERY RUNNER HOLDS A WINNING CHANCE IN THREE-YEAR-OLD HANDICAP ʂ Marcus the man to follow at Scottsville.
There are times when you look at a race and the best advice you can give anybody is “take the field in the Jackpot and Pick 6”. That looks to be the case in Race 7 at Turffontein tomorrow, a Three-Year-Old Handicap over 1450m on the Inside track.
Fortunately, with the scratching of Outshine, it leaves only six runners. However, it is the duty of any analyst to dissect the race and come up with some information that can be useful to the betting public. Firstly, only two runners have raced and won over the course and distance – Bonnie Prince and Zouaves. When Bonnie Prince won on 8 April, he carried 57.5kg and came home in a time of 88.28sec.
When Zouaves won his maiden last time out he came home in 89.06sec, but carried 60kg. This time Bonnie Prince carries the same weight but Zouaves has 7.5kg less on his back. According to the experts that equates to around three lengths while the time difference of 0.78sec would be around 3.50 to four lengths. So statistically that still gives Bonnie Prince the edge.
Zouaves, from the Geoff Woodruff yard, won his race in a work riders’ event and some pundits would argue the opposition is not that strong. That is borne out by the fact that the average merit rating in Zouaves races was just 54 while when Bonnie Prince won, the average rating was 78.
In his favour, however, was that he was only having his second run and there could be loads of room for improvement from the gelded son of Sail From Seattle.
Joe Soma saddles Silver Sails who will be having his first run the Highveld. The Silvano gelding was trained by the late Colin Scott and his three runs have resulted in a third on debut and two wins. It is worth noting Soma has engaged Gavin Lerena for the ride and that means he is probably expecting a good run.
Crazy Vision is having his first run at the course but last time Alec Laird’s charge ran a cracker with Muzi Yeni up, going down 0.75 lengths to Shukamisa.
Raasmaal is the highest rated runner and Mike de Kock has his yard in peak condition at the moment. However, he is trying 1450m for the first time and he has yet to prove he can stay 1200m.
Finally we have Tendre, also from the Soma yard, and he had quite a reputation after winning his first two starts. He then contested the Grade 3 Graham Beck Stakes over 1400m on the Standside track and after building up a massive lead, faded out to run last. He has not been seen out for 200 days but if fit and well, must be a massive runner, especially with S’manga Khumalo in the irons.
There are three Grade 3 races at Scottsville on Sunday and should give some sort of idea of what can be expected later in the month when four Grade 1 races over 1200m are run.
Perhaps the best bet of the three features comes in the Strelitzia Stakes over 1100m where Joey Ramsden sends out Made In Hollywood. The daughter of Querari has raced three times for a win and two places but her victory, at the second time of asking, saw her skate home by 6.25 lengths.
Her follow-up run was an excellent third in open company behind Dutch Philip, a horse highly rated by the Candice Bass-Robinson stable. Anton Marcus takes the ride and as long as she handles the course, Made In Hollywood will be very hard to beat.
It could be Marcus again in the Godolphin Barb where he rides unbeaten Varallo for trainer Charles Laird. He has won both of his races at Scottsville and last time was extremely impressive when beating Calladdi by 2.75 lengths over 1200m.
Live Life has struck form in no uncertain terms and although not the best handicapped runner in the Poinsettia Stakes, she could be the runner they all have to beat.
Callan Murray looks the jockey to follow today at Fairview on the turf track, writes Patrick Nkosi. His first opportunity comes in Race 1 where he rides Window’s Lamp in this Maiden Juvenile Plate for fillies over 1200m.
He has been aboard this twoyear-old daughter of Go Deputy in her last two outings and with each run she’s edged closer to the winner. She stayed on well last time out when only 1.25 lengths in third behind Precious Pansy. This Yvette Bremner-trained filly will jump from stall No 7.