Botswana, Namibia hotspots

COUNTRIES CAN EXPECT TO BE DRIER AND HOTTER – REPORT Warning to act soon – or suffer devastating consequences.

The release this week of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) special report on global warming of 1.50C above pre-industrial levels marks a critical point in climate negotiations. The report illustrates how crossing the ever-nearer threshold of 1.50C warming will affect the planet, and how difficult it will be to avoid overshooting this target.

It takes a worldwide look at the growing impacts of climate change. For climate change “hotspots” – hot, dry and water-stressed countries like Botswana and Namibia in southern Africa – local warming and drying will be greater than the global average.

The report underscores the urgent need for countries like Botswana and Namibia to prepare and adapt – and do so quickly.

The Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to well below 2°C, ideally 1.5°C, by the turn of the century will be extremely challenging. To date, mitigation pledges by nations fall far short of what is needed, with global temperatures on track for a warming of 3.2°C by 2100.

Under an increasing emissions trajectory, the 1.5°C threshold could be breached as early as the next decade, and the 2°C mark the decade after.

An analysis of the effect in Botswana and Namibia of 1.5°C, 2°C shows they’re likely to get hotter, drier and more water-stressed. The sooner southern African countries prepare and implement adaptation strategies the better.

Botswana and Namibia already know the challenges of droughts and floods. A few years ago, Botswana’s capital city, Gaborone, was on the brink of running out of water as the country battled its worst drought in 30 years.

Neighbouring Namibia has battled with recurring and devastating droughts in recent years, especially in its northern regions, where most of the population live.

Global warming of 1.5°C would lead to an average temperature rise above the pre-industrial baseline in Botswana of 2.2°C, and Namibia 2°C. At 2°C global warming, Botswana would experience warming of 2.8°C. Namibia would warm by 2.7°C.

Changes in rainfall are also projected to shift. At 1.5°C of global warming, Botswana would receive 5% less annual rainfall, and Namibia 4% less. At 2°C global warming, annual rainfall in Botswana