Joburg at EFF’s mercies?
No one knows who’ll be mayor of South Africa’s biggest city after Herman Mashaba’s resignation, effective November 27. The Democratic Alliance (DA) has not yet chosen a Johannesburg mayoral candidate. Nor will the DA’s choice necessarily prevail when council sits on November 28.
DA federal leadership has not pronounced on arrangements with the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF). In 2016, Mashaba was elected with EFF support. This time, Julius Malema says the EFF will field a candidate. So too will the ANC, which has 122 councillors, compared to the DA’s 103 and the EFF’s 30. The DA and EFF together will not automatically defeat the ANC.
There are 270 councillors. If DA and EFF councillors toe party lines, they will achieve 133 votes, fewer than half. If the ANC are supported by the Inkatha Freedom Party (5) and African Independent Congress (4), they will have 131.
Kingmakers could thus be among the six smaller parties, each of whom has one vote: Congress of the People, Al-Jammah, African Christian Democratic Party, Freedom Frontplus, United Democratic Movement and Patriotic Alliance. Allegiances are unpredictable.
A winning candidate might not need 136 votes. If only one candidate is nominated, that person is automatically elected. If more than one is nominated, a secret ballot is held. After each round of voting, the candidate with the least votes is eliminated. The last candidate standing wins, even if they don’t have a 50%-plus-one majority (136) of 270 possible votes.
Another imponderable is whether the EFF and DA will cooperate. This weekend’s DA federal council meeting, chaired by Helen Zille, may provide clarity. On eNCA on Sunday, journalist Jan-Jan Joubert said Zille is not in favour of cooperating with the EFF, because of ideological differences.
A recent DA review, commissioned by former leader Mmusi Maimane, concluded that forming a government with the EFF’s support in Johannesburg was a mistake.
It said the DA in Joburg has been, “unable to prosecute a properly DA agenda because we are overly beholden to the EFF”. In addition, “it is corrosive of the DA’s brand to rely on the EFF’s support to govern, given that party’s political philosophy, policy agenda and general behaviour”.
The review said the DA is not in control of its own destiny in Joburg. However, the party should not make a final decision on whether to exit the arrangement, without surveying voters’ views, and careful consideration of consequences.
The panel recommended the party undertake research on voter perceptions of its brand and performance in the city.
After this, the party should decide whether to resign the mayoralty, or how to proceed in a way that will increase support in the 2021 local government elections.
The review does not mention corruption allegations against the EFF, some of which reflect on the DA. Nor does it cover acquiescence to EFF demands, where whites are excluded from top posts, and councillors forbidden to speak Afrikaans.
Also missing is consideration of the views of Joburg DA councillors, who will vote as instructed by their party. There is unease among DA councillors about what is perceived as an abusive relationship with the EFF.
Shall we remain at the tender mercies of the EFF?
DA city councillor in Johannesburg
Another imponderable is whether the EFF and DA will cooperate. This weekend’s DA federal council meeting, chaired by Helen Zille, may provide clarity.