At last Cyril takes a stand

If Ramaphosa wins the SAA battle, it will immeasurably improve his chances for further reforms.

In a month, President Cyril Ramaphosa will mark two years in the presidency.

While the extent of damage wrought by a decade of state capture has become more apparent over the past two years, not much has yet been achieved.

It may be, as his critics continually carp, the paralysis is because CR is an ideological shapeshifter, more committed to holding together a fracturing ANC alliance than saving a sinking nation. Or, as his admirers stoutly maintain, it is a tactical truce, as he tries first to inoculate against a palace coup before sallying forth against the forces of darkness.

It doesn’t really matter, because pressures are escalating so quickly that action is unavoidable. The imminent collapse of a range of state-owned entities (SOEs) means neither prevarication nor stealth is any longer an option.

The battleground Ramaphosa has chosen is not Eskom but SAA, where the government has refused another bailout. It’s a canny decision.

Inflation is under 5%, SAA management has offered a 5.9% salary increase – already unaffordable – while workers are demanding 8%. To get it, they are willing not only to destroy SAA but are, through secondary strike action, targeting the entire aviation sector.

The strike is a strategically poor move. Cross-party public opinion is outraged that the overpaid workers of an overstaffed entity can be so out of touch with the economic misery that most South Africans are dealing with.

Unlike Eskom, SAA, is “not too big to fail”, as Public Enterprises Minister Pravin Gordhan has pointed out. SAA is not an essential service. While it might warm our hearts to see our flag carrier travelling the world, its sale or closure would end the financial haemorrhaging, with R28 billion in accumulated losses in 13 years. And it is a hole that it is digging deeper, with a monthly R500 million deficit to which the strike adds another R50 million every single day that SAA is not flying.

SAA is not only not too big to fail, it is also simply too bloated to survive. It has over 10 000 staff, working out at an annual wage bill of R610 000 per person. By international benchmarks, it’s about 50% overstaffed.

Ramaphosa, always cautious about being linked to an unpopular move, has allowed the public enterprises and labour ministers to set the scene for this battle royal. The survival of his administration now depends on the ANC government triumphing over its union partner.

For the first time, natural ideological alliances are clear. The SACP appears to be ambivalent, not automatically siding with the unions.

So far, it has restrained itself, doing no more than criticising the “cavalier” approach of SAA management. Instead, SAA should engage in “meaningful consultation” to resolve matters “amicably”.

Such platitudes are not the normal SACP fire and brimstone of SACP. Clearly, it is waiting to see which way the winds of victory are blowing before it commits.

If Ramaphosa wins the confrontation, it will immeasurably improve his chances for further reforms. If he fails, at best SA’s state of drift will continue. At worst, he will be recalled and SA’s only hope of a reformed ANC government could be permanently lost.

Ramaphosa is about to be bloodied in battle and the events of the next week or so will determine whether he attends his second-anniversary party in presidential finery or sackcloth and ashes.