A lit­tle bit of fes­tive cheer


The Citizen (KZN) - - Business - US and Canada Europe, Rus­sia, Mid­dle East and Africa Asia

In­ter­est rate de­ci­sions in Asia, Con­sumer data in the US and Eu­ro­zone eco­nomic data.

The last full work­ing week of the year brings a fi­nal snap­shot of the global econ­omy af­ter the 2019 slow­down. From Europe’s flash Pur­chas­ing Man­agers In­dexes (PMI) to China in­dus­try and the all-im­por­tant mood among US con­sumers, it’s a chance to re­view the out­look for 2020. That’s look­ing a bit brighter af­ter the US and China fi­nally agreed on the first part of a trade deal, while the Con­ser­va­tive vic­tory in the UK elec­tion means some Brexit cer­tainty might fi­nally be on the way.

It’s the end of an era in Swe­den, where the Riks­bank may call time on neg­a­tive in­ter­est rates af­ter al­most five years.

Below is our overview of what’s go­ing on in the world econ­omy in the com­ing days:

The week ends with key num­bers on the US con­sumer, in­clud­ing the Uni­ver­sity of Michi­gan sen­ti­ment in­dex and data on per­sonal spend­ing. There’s also an­other es­ti­mate of third-quar­ter gross do­mes­tic prod­uct (GDP).

Euro­pean Cen­tral Bank pres­i­dent Chris­tine La­garde of­fered a rel­a­tively up­beat take on the euro-area econ­omy last week, and in­vestors will be look­ing to the PMIs and Ger­man busi­ness con­fi­dence to see if that was jus­ti­fied.

The Bank of Eng­land pub­lishes its in­ter­est rate de­ci­sion on Thurs­day. Gover­nor Mark Car­ney will dis­cuss the re­ac­tion to the UK vote and what it means for the econ­omy. The other ques­tion yet to be an­swered is who suc­ceeds him when he leaves in Jan­uary.

Amid on­go­ing crit­i­cism of neg­a­tive in­ter­est rates across Europe, Swe­den’s cen­tral bank is fore­cast to hike to zero from -0.25%. But the pol­icy state­ment is likely to be cau­tious, in­di­cat­ing a tight­en­ing cy­cle isn’t kick­ing off.

In Nige­ria, data may show a pickup in in­fla­tion. That may keep the cen­tral bank from eas­ing into early next year, as it fo­cuses on an­chor­ing the naira, one of Africa’s best-per­form­ing cur­ren­cies.

Cen­tral banks in Ja­pan, Thai­land, In­done­sia and Tai­wan meet for their fi­nal in­ter­est-rate de­ci­sions of the year – none are ex­pected to move ac­cord­ing to an early look at econ­o­mists’ ex­pec­ta­tions.

On Thurs­day, Aus­tralian jobs num­bers are set to show un­em­ploy­ment held steady at 5.3% last month. – Bloomberg

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