A little bit of festive cheer
OVERVIEW: WHAT’S GOING TO HAPPEN NOW
Interest rate decisions in Asia, Consumer data in the US and Eurozone economic data.
The last full working week of the year brings a final snapshot of the global economy after the 2019 slowdown. From Europe’s flash Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMI) to China industry and the all-important mood among US consumers, it’s a chance to review the outlook for 2020. That’s looking a bit brighter after the US and China finally agreed on the first part of a trade deal, while the Conservative victory in the UK election means some Brexit certainty might finally be on the way.
It’s the end of an era in Sweden, where the Riksbank may call time on negative interest rates after almost five years.
Below is our overview of what’s going on in the world economy in the coming days:
The week ends with key numbers on the US consumer, including the University of Michigan sentiment index and data on personal spending. There’s also another estimate of third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP).
European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde offered a relatively upbeat take on the euro-area economy last week, and investors will be looking to the PMIs and German business confidence to see if that was justified.
The Bank of England publishes its interest rate decision on Thursday. Governor Mark Carney will discuss the reaction to the UK vote and what it means for the economy. The other question yet to be answered is who succeeds him when he leaves in January.
Amid ongoing criticism of negative interest rates across Europe, Sweden’s central bank is forecast to hike to zero from -0.25%. But the policy statement is likely to be cautious, indicating a tightening cycle isn’t kicking off.
In Nigeria, data may show a pickup in inflation. That may keep the central bank from easing into early next year, as it focuses on anchoring the naira, one of Africa’s best-performing currencies.
Central banks in Japan, Thailand, Indonesia and Taiwan meet for their final interest-rate decisions of the year – none are expected to move according to an early look at economists’ expectations.
On Thursday, Australian jobs numbers are set to show unemployment held steady at 5.3% last month. – Bloomberg