Waypoint in SA’s political history

On paper, tomorrow’s no-confidence motion against President Cyril Ramaphosa – to be debated in parliament – seems to be a nonevent. The head of state and ANC leader won’t lose sleep worrying over whether he will survive this attempt to oust him.

Any motion of no confidence needs a simple majority (of more than 50%) to succeed, so Ramaphosa should be just fine.

The ANC has 230 MPs in the House of Assembly, out of a total of 400, well more than 50%.

Even if the Economic Freedom Fighters’ 44 MPs vote for the motion and they are joined by the two from the sponsoring African Transformation Movement party, there is little real threat, given that the DA is likely not to go against Ramaphosa at this stage.

Yet, the vote tomorrow is a critical waypoint in the political history of South Africa.

It will confirm the rift between the EFF and the ANC, which has been widening over the past two years, as the EFF seeks to maximise every opportunity for populist gain … and the ANC, with its pitiful record of delivery, coupled with its corruption, is an easy target.

It will also remind us of the art of practical politics as the DA goes easy on the man it regards as the least of many evils within the ANC.

However, the real focus of the vote will be on whether any of Ramaphosa’s opponents – in the faction loyal to former president Jacob Zuma and many of whom are accused of involvement in state capture – will feel strong enough to challenge the president in the open.

The faction has been flexing is muscles in recent weeks in an obvious attempt to deflect from the serious charges its leaders are facing.

What is certain is that a victory for Ramaphosa won’t be the end of the war for him.