Ramaphosa very much on front foot

This time five years ago – as the ANC prepared for what would turn out to be a watershed elective conference at Nasrec – there was little indication Cyril Ramaphosa would defeat the Jacob Zuma faction to become party president and the country’s leader. Right up until the virtual last minute, when Mpumalanga strongman David Mabuza threw his weight (and that of the delegates loyal to him) behind Ramaphosa, it looked as though Zuma and his nominee Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma would prevail.

Zuma made maximum use of all the political and other clout he could muster through utilising state organs on his behalf, distributing largesse and getting rid of those in his Cabinet whom he saw as threats. This year’s race, though, is entirely different. Ramaphosa is very much on the front foot and received a major boost yesterday with the victory of his loyalist, Eastern Cape premier Oscar Mabuyane, in the race to be head of the party in that province. Mabuyane was opposed by Babalo Madikizela, who is known to have been close to Ramaphosa opponents in the “radical economic transformation” faction orbiting Zuma.

Ramaphosa has been painstakingly, but ruthlessly, sidelining opponents in the ANC – and using the organisation’s own policies to do so. Thus, the “step-aside” rule has meant that many of those who oppose Ramaphosa are unable to stand for election to party or public office.

Apart from that, the ANC is an organisation of plotters … and plotters who change positions in an instant, depending on which way the political wind is blowing.

After the triumph of Mabuyane, that wind is blowing favourably for Ramaphosa and it is likely that most other provinces – with the exception of Zuma’s stronghold of KwaZulu-Natal – will fall to the Ramaphosa steamroller. Even in KZN, though, Ramaphosa has managed to make gains.

And this is not a race Ramaphosa is prepared to lose.