Grid dire but crash ‘unlikely’
POWER CRISIS: RISK OF TOTAL BLACKOUT REAL – EXPERTS Minister warns interfering with entities such as Eskom may spell disaster.
With stage 6 load shedding in full swing, experts have warned of total pandemonium and life as we know it will come to a screeching halt if the country was to be plunged into total blackout or grid collapse.
The continued deterioration of the state power utility Eskom made the risk of this catastrophe happening very real unless there were urgent interventions.
Public Enterprises Minister Pravin Gordhan, who this week blamed the stage 6 load shedding on saboteurs, hinted on what could happen if the tampering and interfering with the infrastructure continued.
He said electricity was crucial to all households and the economy, adding power supply certainty was also important to investors.
“For social contract, certainly we should agree, whether we are in union, business, Eskom staff or concerned citizens, we should not interfere with important entities like Eskom, which are the lifeblood of the economy… So electricity and the lack of it can cause a huge amount of damage,” Gordhan has warned.
Nicolaas Esterhuysen, director of Engineering Services at the University of the Free State, said a total blackout was unthinkable as it will affect all facets of life in SA and could spell catastrophe.
He said there would be no means of communications and transportations because power was used to pump fuel; no water as there would be no waste water treatment and people on life support would die as there would be no sufficient back-up.
“A total blackout would be a catastrophic event, should it happen to SA,” Esterhuysen warned.
He, however, explained that a blackout was normally classified as a high impact, low priority event, meaning the probability of happening was extremely low.
Esterhuysen said the probability of this happening has increased, but said various systems were in place to mitigate such a risk.
He said one of those was the manual load shedding, what South Africans had become too familiar with, and other automatic protection systems (such as UFLS – under frequency load shedding) were also in place.
“But the public has lost confidence in Eskom to properly maintain such systems. Overall, we are not close to a total blackout, but Eskom needs to regain the trust of the public to ensure these critical system are well taken care off,” Esterhuysen said.
He said sabotage was part of the rot at Eskom, saying whether it was employees sabotaging infrastructure to give work to their friends – mostly emergency work, bypassing procurement guidelines and assigning work to contractors for kickbacks – or employees engaged in the wage dispute is unclear.
Esterhuysen added that a firm stance will have to be taken to eliminate that criminal component from inside the workforce.
Energy expert Bertha Dlamini echoed Esterhuysen’s sentiments, saying Eskom was facing complex operational challenges and these were compounded by the recent strike action.
She, however, said it would be ill-informed to predict a complete grid collapse as the latest developments indicated that Eskom was working with relevant stakeholders to resolve the labour disputes.
“It will be prudent for citizens to explore and find ways to curtail their electricity demand and consumption,” Dlamini said.
“This includes finding affordable solar solutions and energy storage solutions. Various banks have created credit facilities for domestic customers for such products. This will be a good investment for property owners.”
She said the allegations of sabotage was very serious and disturbing. “If such allegations are found to be true, it was hoped that Eskom will be diligent in working with the relevant law enforcement authorities to unravel any secondary criminal economy that has entangled its operations.”