Top Quality Trip is expected
GOOD RIDE: OFF JUST 52KG MUZI MAKES HIS RIDE ON SNAITH RUNNER HIS VALUE BET IN THE CAPE
ʂ Shanta’s Pride the best bet at Greyville on Sunday.
Once again we have no racing on the Highveld this weekend but I still have a busy schedule, travelling around the country. Racing tomorrow takes place at Hollywoodbets Durbanville in the Western Cape and there will be an eight-race card on offer of which I have seven rides carded.
Racing on Sunday takes place at Hollywoodbets Greyville where this is also an eight-race card on offer where I have a total of five rides on the card.
After looking through both meetings I would like to focus on the Durbanville card and I’ll give insight into my best bet and value bet at Greyville on Sunday.
There is some good racing taking place at Durbanville with the meeting headlined by the Listed Settlers Trophy over 2000m.
On top of that, I think the most exciting race on the card comes up in Race 8 which is a Graduation Plate over 1200m and there are potentially some unexposed top-class performers taking their place.
Last week was a great week for the column with both our best bet (Umthombo Wolwazi) and value bet (Bella Siccome) winning.
Any of the followers could have made a decent return if they went
with those suggestions.
We were also pretty spot on with the rest of the card. Hopefully it was profitable for you and hopefully the trend will continue.
It was another good week for me as I managed to boot home another six winners and I really hope that trend will continue as well.
On Sunday at Greyville, my best bet on the card comes up in Race 8 in the form of Shanta’s Pride. She ran a lovely race on debut and with the expected natural improvement she will be a hard filly to beat.
The step-up in trip should suit and her form is the best on offer.
I think she is a banker in all bets.
My value bet comes up in Race 2 in the form of Love Bomb. She goes over the 1800m but the way she won when stepped up to 1700m suggests that won’t be a problem at all and in fact it should suit.
She is the joint best-weighted horse in the race and off a decent draw will take all the beating.
Now on to the card for tomorrow at Durbanville and Race 1 is a Maiden Plate for fillies and mares over 1200m. I ride Cloud Chaser who is an extremely well-bred unraced horse who I don’t have any knowledge about.
I will be hoping for a nice run but we are drawn wide so it will be tricky.
My best bet on the card comes up in the form of Hunting Trip. She has had two really good runs and off draw No 1 will take all the beating.
F Eight could be the main
danger after two fair runs. Also, watch the betting support on the unraced horses for the best guide.
Race 2 is a MR 85 Handicap for fillies and mares over 1400m and I ride Lady Mistico who returns after a small break. She is clearly above average and if close to peak fitness I think I have a decent chance of running into the money or fighting out the finish.
Miss Greenlight is the horse to beat and could potentially enjoy the step-up in trip.
Treasure Hunt and Fleeting are others to consider for wider bets.
Race 3 is a Maiden Plate over 1200m and I ride Wylie Jack. He unfortunately comes into the race off a bad draw, but I was slightly impeded in my last start on him and I think he could have finished a bit closer.
I am hoping he can run into the money but it’s difficult to have confidence about him winning.
Watch the betting support on the unraced horses for the best guide to their chances.
Of the raced runners I think Sir William is the horse to beat after a good first run. With any natural improvement he will fight out the finish.
Aussenkehr could be the main danger because he is in good form. Night Tiger is another that must be respected and included.
Race 4 is a Maiden Special Weights Race over 2000m. I ride Scallywag who will be trying the trip for the first time and hopefully that can bring about improvement which will be needed in order for him to feature.
This, however, is not a strong race so my suggestion is to go as
wide as possible.
Guy Alexander is probably the horse to beat after a good recent effort and a repeat of that will see him just about win.
Global Avenue comes off a break but if close to peak fitness, he will fight out the finish.
Global Forests and Quasimodo are others who have to be included.
Race 5 is a MR 80 Handicap for fillies and mares over 1000m. I ride Seeking Peace who is everconsistent and even though she is drawn widest of all she definitely has an each-way chance.
I like the look of up-and-coming horse Cityscape.
She jumps up in class after a maiden win but she gets the benefit of a light weight and could be better than rated.
Ma Black has been slightly disappointing but if she comes back to best, she will be right there.
Different Face has to be respected from a good draw after a very decent last run.
These horses should get you through all bets.
Race 6 is a Middle Stakes over 1600m and I ride Keep It Secret who has a chance to run into the money off a good draw. My only concern is that he gives away loads of weight but he is the class horse in this race.
I think we all have Van Hunks to beat. This is his third run after a rest so he will be cherry ripe and will take all the beating.
Silent War and The Futurist are definite dangers so must be respected while Shavout and Faire Advantage are others to consider.
Race 7 is the headliner on the
card, the Listed Settlers Trophy over 2000m, and I ride Top Quality who I make my value bet on the card.
He is coming into himself, and his comeback run was outstanding. Off 52kg he has to be a massive runner and should fight out the finish.
My main danger could be Baratheon who also comes in with a light weight so he should be right there.
Somerset Maugham and Thefutureisbright are others who could finish into the money.
Race 8 is a Graduation Plate over 1250m and what a lovely race this could be.
There are so many unexposed horses and they could potentially be anything. But I’m taking a chance of what I’ve seen and I’m making Charles Dickens the horse to beat.
He won with a huge amount in hand last time and if close to peak fitness he will be hard to beat.
Dave The King is unbeaten and won a top race last time so he rates the main danger. Narina Trogon is another to consider.
BEST BET Race 1
No 1 Hunting Trip
VALUE BET Race 7
No 10 Top Quality
PICK 6
R432
Leg 1: 4, 7, 12
Leg 2: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9
Leg 3: 2, 4, 5, 9
Leg 4: 8
Leg 5: 10
Leg 6: 1, 3, 4, 6