Horse-trading heats up as regions campaign for top posts
The race for the ANC top six is set to be more exciting than in the past because there are no real tensions as candidates are freely entering the contest without having to look over their shoulders.
New guidelines on campaigning will ensure no big bucks change hands as the candidates must declare the sponsorships for their campaigns and no-one will be allowed to push out a fellow candidate.
The party gave the go-ahead for open contestation and campaigning but under strict conditions, an improvement on the past when the game had no rules.
Running for the No 1 spot, as some would say, are incumbent Cyril Ramaphosa as well as Minister of Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, former health minister Zweli Mkhize and Minister of Tourism Lindiwe Sisulu.
Dlamini-Zuma was the latest to join the race after she accepted the nomination from ANC branches.
This is not a very strong calibre line-up for ANC president (and possibly the future president of the country), nor were the rest of the remaining five positions.
It is not the quality top-six leadership former president Thabo Mbeki has been talking about.
Dlamini-Zuma is the candidate of the so-called radical economic transformation (RET) group, but there has been no unanimity about her in the faction. Some believe she betrayed them with her closeness to Ramaphosa in government.
Her sin has been to do her job honestly as a minister in Ramaphosa’s Cabinet, instead rocking the boat to tilt the scales in the RET’s favour and not being critical of the government she was serving in.
A generational mix is contesting for deputy president. Two young bloods in Minister of Justice and Correctional Services Ronald Lamola and Human Settlements Minister Mmamoloko Kubayi are up against ANC treasurer-general Paul Mashatile and incumbent David Mabuza.
The third spot, national chair, will be contested by Deputy Finance Minister David Masondo, Eastern Cape premier Oscar Mabuyane and his Limpopo counterpart Stan Mathabatha.
Incumbent Gwede Mantashe initially expressed interest in the deputy president post, but some wanted him back as secretary-general, a position he occupied throughout the Zuma years at Luthuli House.
The names which have been touted for secretary-general are Transport Minister Fikile Mbalula, ANC NEC member Gwen Ramokgopa and KwaZulu-Natal PEC member Mdumiseni Ntuli.
While Mbalula and Ramokgopa are Ramaphosa allies, Ntuli, by virtue of being from pro-Zuma KwaZulu-Natal, is perceived to belong to that camp.
Ntuli's name has been raised in a number of provinces and his experience as provincial secretary in KZN could be an advantage in the race.
There could also be consensus about him taking over as chief of Luthuli House in order to accommodate KZN, which was not represented in the top six at Nasrec 2017.
Many want Ramokgopa as deputy secretary-general in order to learn the ropes. She might compete against, Nomvula Mokonyane, who apart from links to the RET, has vast ANC experience and political leadership versatility.
Different provinces have different slates for the top six and intense horse-trading is underway among the ANC provincial structures.
The difficult is that each province feels strongly about its own candidate and is reluctant to compromise in the true spirit of bargaining.
Although KZN was seen as a kingmaker due having the largest membership numbers, the province alone will not determine the electoral outcomes.
The previously vocal RET members have been muted and weakened. It seems to have accepted that its wish to have suspended secretary-general Ace Magashule challenge Ramaphosa for the ANC presidency will not be realised, even though nobody under the ANC’s step-aside policy will be barred from the contest.
KZN is seen as kingmaker, but will need support