Cyril in pole position

Markedly less pressure on Ramaphosa than at Nasrec 1. LEADS MAIN CHALLENGER BY LARGE MARGIN

ANC Nasrec 2, unlike Nasrec 1, appears set to be a one-sided affair – with President Cyril Ramaphosa seemingly heading for a victory without a big fight.

The 2017 ANC presidential race between Ramaphosa and Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma was such a close affair and so well organised by both factions of the party that it was difficult to predict the winner.

There is less pressure on Ramaphosa this time around. Without formally launching any campaign, he received unprecedented nominations from ANC branches for a second term.

With his political strength having multiplied since 2017, it was easy for Ramaphosa to beat his main challenger, Zweli Mkhize, by a large margin and to leave presidential hopefuls Dlamini-Zuma and Lindiwe Sisulu by the wayside.

This race is different to the 2017 election, where the stakes were so high that six top leaders put their hats in the ring for the presidency before it became a two-horse, neck-and-neck race between Dlamini-Zuma and Ramaphosa. The results gave 2 440 votes to Ramaphosa against Dlamini-Zuma’s 2 261.

Hostilities marred the 2017 national conference. The radical economic transformation (RET) faction was at its strongest and had inundated social media with false messages to discredit their opponents.

The CR17 camp, on the other hand, ran a quiet campaign with massive sloganeering and new songs to popularise their candidate amid claims they were funded by big business.

At the time, Dlamini-Zuma’s support was not only limited to KwaZulu-Natal and she had a wider footprint that included the backing of the ANC women’s and youth leagues.

Jacob Zuma and his entire RET faction were on her side. Part of the Eastern Cape, with its RET diehards Andile Lungisa and Mlibo Qoboshiyane, and Free State and North West were also behind her. The Guptas were also still around to assist her campaign.

Unlike Dlamini-Zuma, Mkhize came with a thin following from KZN this time around, where Ramaphosa had made some serious inroads.

Ramaphosa backer Thabani Nyawose lost 210 to 181 against Zandile Gumede in the influential eThekwini region for the position of chair.

In addition to a limited footprint, Zuma declined to support

Mkhize and instead opted for Dlamini-Zuma.

This left Mkhize with only support from the “Taliban” grouping in the provincial executive committee, led by Siboniso Duma and lower party structures.

Mkhize’s nomination by the ANC national youth task team means little as it came not from the branches but only their leadership’s internal voting.

In addition, Mkhize only enjoyed part of the RET support but not the core of the faction. This is a huge advantage for Ramaphosa, who is leading the nomination stakes for president 2 037 against Mkhize’s 916, while Dlamini-Zuma and Sisulu did not make the cut.

Significantly the Free State and North West, which both previously supported Zuma and Dlamini-Zuma, nominated Ramaphosa, not Mkhize. Ramaphosa also had the backing of former RET defectors such as Fikile Mbalula and Gwede Mantashe.

As D-Day beckons, one thing is for sure, Ramaphosa will win with a bigger margin over Mkhize this time.