Load-shedding may be on the cards

Blackouts will be ‘last resort’ as Eskom battles with maintenance

SOME form of electricity load-shedding might be imposed for two weeks each month for the next three months as Eskom works on unplanned maintenance. This is according to insiders, who have been briefed on the electricity supply outlook up to March. Eskom spokesman Andrew Etzinger said that though the system was “under strain” it would not need to ask customers to reduce power use for two weeks a month.

According to Etzinger, Eskom estimated that it would lose capacity of about 6 500MW due to planned maintenance.

This means it would operate on an energy availability factor of about 74% of its 44 000MW capacity, whereas it usually aimed for at least 80%.

“[It] is more alarming than I expected,” sector specialist Chris Yelland said yesterday.

In November, Eskom announced a “crisis” when the electricity supply was outstripped by demand, prompting the utility to tell its biggest industrial customers to reduce their power use by 10%.

Though the crisis was under control two days later, experts predicted a similar situation when business picked up this month.

Etzinger said there were several reasons for unplanned outages.

“It is not just due to tripping [of the power generator], it is also due to poor coal quality and the high temperatures that affect the efficiency of the generators,” he said.

Though Eskom usually asks its biggest industrial customers such as BHP Billiton, Exxaro, Glencore, Anglo, Sasol and Sappi to cut their electricity use, Etzinger said that, in a worst-case scenario, it might also implement load-shedding in residential areas.

“Our priority is to protect the grid and to prevent a blackout. If that situation comes about, we would certainly use both options. Our plan is to keep the lights on.”

South Africa was plunged into darkness in 2007-08 when Eskom introduced forced load-shedding for residential customers.

Yesterday, National Union of Metalworkers of SA energy sector coordinator Stephen Nhlapo said work was “not going OK” on the construction of the 4 800MW Medupi power station.

“Hundreds of workers are sitting outside as contractors are demobilising [retrenching] old workers and hiring new ones.

“People went home over the holidays and came back and found they don’t have work,” he said.

“Wemight have a big problem [today]. The workers are angry and other workers might join them. There might be a full-blown strike [today].

“The way things are going, we are going to have big disturbances this year,” Nhlapo said.