ANC divided on nuclear – report

A NOMURA Research report released yesterday on South Africa’s nuclear programme says the political dynamic in the country is not solidly behind such a programme‚ even within the ANC.

This could even mean “that the government cannot guarantee a majority on the energy portfolio committee within parliament on this issue”, researcher Peter Attard-Montalto said.

He wrote: “Adding in civil society protestations and likely legal objections‚ we see major obstacles to the start of actual construction occurring through the court system and parliamentary censure.

“We therefore think it may be possible [but far from certain] that a few GW [gigawatts] of nuclear energy are eventually built,” he said.

“But it seems highly unlikely to us that a full 9.6GW programme will ever materialise seen through this lens of political‚ succession‚ legal‚ regulatory‚ comparative cost and technological change risk that all bear against this programme.

“The split that we think exists between the ANC and government on nuclear power is primarily a manifestation of a much deeper KZN-Gauteng ANC divide‚ in our view‚ that is playing out into the 2017 elective conference.

“The KZN faction is backing the government while the Gauteng faction is showing more scepticism and desire for cost accountability.”

The report says some elements of the government‚ including President Jacob Zuma, are “aggressively” trying to move forwards with 9.6GW of nuclear procurement‚ “seemingly against modelling work showing it is likely unnecessary and against cost . . . concerns”. – RDM Newswire