Why ANC lost Ward 30 poll

IMURMURED to myself: “I wonder if Oom Gov had anticipated this when he chose this location.” The thought was triggered by the announcement of the results of a by-election that had taken place the previous day, on August 19, in Ward 30, Port Elizabeth.

Together with his old comrade, Raymond Mhlaba – who we affectionately called Oom Ray – struggle veteran Govan Mbeki is buried in this ward, at the cemetery located in Sakuba Street, Veeplaas. This is not the kind of a cemetery one would ordinarily associate with the remains of a worldly man of Mbeki’s stature.

Veeplaas was even worse back then, in September 2001, when Oom Gov was buried. The place was still a shack land – we grew up calling it enyunywini, a muddy area that was more like a dumping site than a place of residence.

But blacks lived there. It was one of many markers of a hateful society that had been carefully designed by successive apartheid governments with the support of South Africa’s white community.

Oom Gov chose to be buried enyunywini, over the fancy cemeteries in town. Some of the graves there are not even marked.

In their bosoms, however, lie some of the most fearless freedom fighters, amaqhawe. This is where black folk buried them at the height of the struggle against apartheid in the 1980s.

So common was death then that what is supposedly the last resting place also turned into a killing field. People went there not only to bid farewell to the dead, but also to fetch death itself.

Apartheid soldiers mowed them down with the most bizarre ease at funerals.

Ward 30, the resting place of South Africa’s revolutionaries, has been lost to the party of the revolution. For the first time since 1995 the ward has switched hands from the ANC to the UDM.

What is intriguing here is not really that the ANC lost a ward that carries immense historical significance to the liberation movement. Rather, it is the meaning of the UDM’s victory.

This party got a measly 1% of the votes in the 2011 local elections, while the ANC gained a commanding 64%. The UDM hasn’t done anything to convince people that it will do any better than the ANC.

It has no record to speak of. Voters are not attracted to the UDM, but are repulsed by the ANC.

Incumbency is a double-edged sword. It is both a benefit and a burden.

Incumbency enables control over distribution of public resources. Voters reciprocate with votes when they feel fulfilled.

Provision of public goods, however, doesn’t guarantee sustained support. Votes have to be continuously earned.

Veeplaas is a lot better now than it was 20 years ago, but people are not just uncritically grateful towards the party-in-government. They not only want it to keep up its good performance, but also for it to do even better.

People hold the ANC to a high standard. This is informed by their knowledge of the party and their sense of proprietary over the liberation movement.

Because they have long memories, people are also quick to tell when they’re being deceived. Their emotional ties to the party make the disappointment even more painful.

That pain turns into distrust. You could hear them shouting as the politicians were making speeches: “Ningamaxoki (You’re liars)!”

Complacency remains the governing party’s greatest enemy. The level of activism wasn’t as visible or intense as it was in the Tlokwe or Uitenhage by-elections where the party contested against independents who had broken away.

National leaders were visible in those by-elections, but they were absent in Veeplaas. Provincial leaders only showed up on the Saturday, just a few days ahead of the election day on the Wednesday.

Even more curious about this campaign was the relative absence of the distribution of food parcels. The ANC excels in this practice during by-elections, but there was none of it, even though the August month of women would have provided a convenient excuse to lavish elderly women with blankets and groceries.

Instead, it was the UDM that distinguished itself. The party’s regional leader, Mongameli Bobani, and the ward candidate, Mandla Faltein, provided groceries and slaughtered cattle weeks ahead of the elections. Although it had performed disastrously in the previous election, the UDM was not deterred. It took this contest seriously and believed it could win it.

Its level of preparedness was just impressive, especially on election day. The party’s superior planning showed in organising voters who had relocated to the nearby new RDP settlement, Chatty, but are still registered in Ward 30.

The ANC was banking on these voters to settle the contest in its favour. By 5.30pm it could already read the signs, especially at the voting station in Sakuba Street, that the UDM was winning the contest.

It could tell by the sheer number of voters clad in UDM T-shirts and the hype of activity around the party’s desk at the voting station. The ANC was no match.

Just as the ANC was still thinking of organising transport to Chatty, the UDM was leading a convoy of 28 minibuses down Ralo Road into Veeplaas. They were packed with UDM supporters. That was game over!

Of the five voting stations that make up Ward 30 – three in Veeplaas and two in KwaMagxaki – the UDM won three. It won both the voting stations in the middle class suburb of KwaMagxaki.

The ANC won narrowly in two voting stations in Veeplaas, while the UDM won by a landslide in the one voting station that covers the historic graveyard at Sakuba Street.

The black middle class continues to desert the liberation movement. Or could it be that Bobani and Faltein’s residence, KwaMagxaki, gave the UDM an upper hand?

But then we witnessed similar voting behaviour in last year’s elections. A notable number of middle class voters at KwaMagxaki and KwaDwesi in fact voted for the EFF, but the EFF didn’t feature in this by-election.

For a party that appeals to the disillusioned youth, one would have thought that the EFF would consider a region that has a 36% unemployment rate a fertile ground to test its appeal. The party clearly lacks an organisational infrastructure at the local level.

It has focused its organisational energies at the national level and the ill-discipline at local level, away from Julius Malema’s tight grip, hasn’t made it easy to develop roots in townships.

Conversely, the DA has some presence, however negligible. From 3% of the votes in 2011, now it got 9%.

This is an upward movement, but it still fell short of its 10% target. Overall, though, the party is rejoicing at the UDM victory.

It considers a shift away from the ANC its future support. That’s what happened with COPE.

It turned out to be a stop-over en route to the DA.

The relatively peaceful nature of the by-election is highly commendable. No party queried election results, or complained of no-go areas.

This augurs well for our democracy. One can’t say the same of the ANC though.

This is a second by-election loss in the metro in just eight months. Local elections are roughly nine months away, but the party infrastructure is disorganised.

Ward 30 may not be the last surprise.