How vote-splitters line up
THEY are bold, firebrands and speak what some say are uncomfortable truths – and they are pulling out all the stops to get a slice of the Nelson Mandela Bay pie. All eyes will be on the so-called smaller political parties – the EFF, United Front and UDM – as well as about a dozen independent candidates who are the real game-changers expected to swing the majority vote in the August 3 elections.
On May 19 2011, as the election results from the previous day trickled in, it became clear that the next local government elections would be a fierce battle between the two political giants in Nelson Mandela Bay, the ANC and the DA.
The ANC had dropped 15 percentage points and won with a mere 51.9%, while the DA gained 13.5 percentage points to stand at 40.2%.
Fast forward to the 2014 general elections in which the ANC dropped to 49% in the Bay but the DA stayed at 40%.
Now, the DA believes the metro is its for the taking.
It believes that years of patronage, financial mismanagement and political turmoil within the ANC will automatically drive traditional ANC voters to cast their ballots for the official opposition.
This, of course, does not take into account the rhetoric of the Danny Jordaan administration, which boasts of clean governance and tackling corruption head on.
It also does not consider the new kids on the block, the EFF, which is becoming increasingly popular in the Bay.
Also in the mix is the United Front, which has a strong workers’ presence in the city through the National Union of Metalworkers (Numsa).
Bay political analyst Joleen Steyn-Kotze believes that unhappiness around the councillor candidate lists of both the ANC and the DA could play a big role in punishing both parties at the polls.
“Smaller parties and independent candidates can act to split the vote for either the DA or the ANC.
“The metro remains one of the most contested for this particular local government election.
“Thus, the DA and the ANC need every vote they can get if they are to secure a majority.
“While [eNCA/Ipsos] opinion polling indicates that the DA can take the metro, we also cannot ignore the undecided voter who may well vote for the EFF, UDM, or the independent candidates,” Steyn-Kotze said.
ECONOMIC FREEDOM FIGHTERS
THE EFF toyi-toyed onto the scene less than a year before the 2014 general elections, with no money to campaign, and it clinched more than 4% of the votes in Nelson Mandela Bay.
It does not often hold big rallies in the city, only when its national leaders are in town, but regional secretary Zilindile Vena believes it will play a key role in ensuring that neither the DA nor ANC wins an outright majority in the city.
“We are on the ground and we’re proposing a totally different approach to local government than other parties,’ Vena said.
“The EFF will create jobs. Everything that is consumed here in the metro must be produced here.
“The municipality will absorb all security and cleaners – we don’t want outsourcing – and we want a municipality that will operate seven days a week so that people can get services on Saturdays.
“We will rezone other available land for housing purposes, like that Boet Erasmus land [Telkom Park]. We want it rezoned to build houses.
“We are bringing a people-centred municipality, with councillors that must be available for 24 hours a day,” Vena said.
The EFF has not yet selected its mayoral candidates, saying it does not want to promote an individual above other councillor candidates.
Vena said the party was willing to work with other opposition parties after the election and between them, they would decide on a mayoral candidate.
“Where we didn’t win, we will work with a coalition of opposition parties . . . We have decided on a concept of cooperation of a special type which will be decided at a national level,” he said.
“We would have a contractual relationship for a year with the person we agree to as a mayor and we would give our support and vote to that person if they deliver ABC.
“But we will discuss that after the elections.”
UNITED DEMOCRATIC MOVEMENT
THE UDM held one PR seat in the Nelson Mandela Bay council for 15 years before it won its first ward, Ward 30, in a by-election last year.
Through its rambunctious regional leader and now mayoral candidate Mongameli Bobani, it achieved what many thought impossible and took the traditional ANC ward from the party.
Since then, the UDM has been campaigning tirelessly around the city with hopes of snatching even more wards from the ANC.
“The smaller parties are very hungry to serve. We are eager to help our communities,” Bobani said.
“As we are doing in Ward 30, we will not rest and we will continue to be in touch with our communities.”
Bobani has taken the party’s oversight role seriously, never shying away from a debate or from raising uncomfortable motions. His most memorable motion over the past five years was when he put his hand up in the council in 2012 and declared that it was time for then-acting municipal manager Temba Hani to pack his bags.
With the support of the DA, COPE, ACDP and some ANC councillors, he succeeded in sending Hani back to Bhisho, from where he had been seconded.
Steyn-Kotze believes that smaller parties, such as the UDM, will be kingmakers in the elections and they should not be underestimated.
UNITED FRONT
PREVIOUSLY touted as a potential game-changer to give the ANC a run for its money, the United Front has remained somewhat under the radar since it was established two years ago. But Steyn-Kotze believes that because of Numsa’s strong footing in the Bay, the United Front should be able to capitalise on that and gain a significant chunk of the vote.
“We know that this area has a strong Numsa presence, a union that has been increasingly critical of the ANC leadership and policy direction,” Steyn-Kotze said.
United Front regional secretary Mkhuseli Mtsila said the party would launch its manifesto on July 9 and all its national leaders – Irvin Jim, Zwelinzima Vavi, Thobile Ntola and Zanoxolo Wayile – would be present.
“Areas like Uitenhage and the northern areas feel left out of the metro,” Mtsila said.
“We plan to bring efficient service delivery to the people by introducing sub-councils in their areas.
“We want a metro that will be free of unemployment, poverty and homelessness.
“We will create jobs that are more vocational and back job creation,” Mtsila said.
Would the United Front consider joining forces with other parties if there is no outright winner?
“We should have bases of common policies that favour poor people. Interventions must be pro-poor and they [other parties] should believe in economic transformation and land distribution.
“If the party has all of these in their principles and policies, then we can likely form a coalition with them,” Mtsila said.
INDEPENDENTS
NEVER before has the role of independents been taken as seriously as it is in this election.
It is especially important after the ANC lost spectacularly to its former member, Ward 42 councillor Andile Gqabi, when he stood independently in a by-election in 2014.
There are at least a dozen independent candidates who will be contesting in the Bay, including Gqabi who is vying for his ward again.
“My message is clear – people should vote to win for a better future of the metro,” he said.
“It is evident in the metro that people who rely on political parties are being disappointed. There have been a lot of service-delivery protests and we plan to speed up services with no interference from political parties.”
Steyn-Kotze believes the independent candidates could split the votes for either the ANC or DA.
Seven independents from the northern areas are former DA members who did not make it on to the party’s candidate lists.
Under the guidance of former DA MP Donald Lee, they are hoping to win some of the wards.
The seven are Colin Potgieter (Ward 11), Ncedikhaya “Zizi” Sandi (Ward 31), Elsie Dube (Ward 32), Charmaine Bibby (Ward 34), Neville Abrahams (Ward 35), Evelyn Uithaler (Ward 37) and Sarina Marlow (Ward 38).
Lee said of his recruits: “We are prepared for the coming local government elections and we have the support from community members.
“If you have support from the community members, you don’t have to go around putting up posters because people know you already.
“This is different from the DA which brings candidates from outside the wards. They need posters so that people can see the faces of the candidates they are meant to vote for.”
Two ANC members, Mbongeni Bungane and Mzukisi Ncayo will also be giving it a go as independents in Ward 41, as they are unhappy with the outcome of the ANC’s list process.
Uitenhage’s Mzikayise “Rider” Simakhulu, who also failed to make the ANC’s list, will be contesting as an independent in Ward 46.
“I plan to better people’s lives by availing myself 24/7,” Simakhulu said.
“We will fight crime by using every opportunity available to help create jobs for the youth.
“We don’t want to depend too much on municipal projects but we intend on creating jobs for the youth something that will sustain them in a long run,” Simakhulu said.
In Ward 53, Kamvelihle, community members approached resident Vusumzi Ngqungwana to be their candidate.
“People were relocated to this area in 2011 and since then nothing much has happened – people feel like they were dumped here,” Ngqungwana said.
“There are no schools or a community hall and people’s houses are falling apart because we were left out from the municipality’s renovation plans.
“People did not just decide that they want an independent councillor because we have tried so many means to get services in our area but all our pleas fell on deaf ears,” Ngqunwana said.
Would he team up with any political party should he make it into the council? Ngqunwana has no plans to do so.
“People from Ward 53 belong to different political parties and we respect that and we are contesting the coming elections as independents.
“We do not mind working with other independent councillors as long as they are not aligned to any political parties.”