Demographics set to cause economic dilemma

SOUTH Africa is facing an economic dilemma – two of its most dependent groups – small children and the elderly – are growing‚ while the number of people making up the workforce is declining.

Releasing population estimates‚ statistician-general Pali Lehola said the population was at an estimated 56.52 million – 902 200 more people than last year.

Population rates for children between 0 and 14 years had steadily increased since 2002-3‚ largely due to the introduction of Prevention of Mother to Child Transmission (PMCT) and antiretroviral treatment for HIV-infected mothers and children.

But fertility rates had declined, with the average number of children born at 2.4 – compared with 2.7 ten years ago.

South Africans are living longer‚ with the average life expectancy 64 years – two years more than the 2012 estimate.

Problematically, however‚ the population in the age range of 15 to 34 had been steadily declining. It was supposed to be the most economically active age range‚ making up the bulk of the workforce.

“These two age groups [children and the elderly] are dependent populations and they depend largely on the 15 to 34 age group. But the growth rate of that group is declining‚ so the burden will fall on a declining population,” Lehola said.

“Added to this is that the 15 to 35 age group has the highest rate of unemployment, so they’re relying on nothing. In fact, the group is feeding off the social grants of the children and the elderly‚” he said. “We are facing a serious problem.”

Lehola said the data was crucial for government planning purposes.