SA needs competent leadership
THERE is considerable political turbulence in South Africa today.
This is essentially due to the political contestation for leadership positions in the ANC in the run-up to its elective conference in December, coupled with the inordinate controversy caused by, inter alia, state capture, and the issues of rampant and endemic corruption that the Jacob Zuma presidency has spawned.
Within the ANC there is unprecedented instability and a real danger of some kind of political implosion.
Furthermore, it must be borne in mind that our political situation has been changing for some time.
This is illustrated by the fact that prior to last year’s local government elections South Africa could have been accurately described as a dominant party state democracy.
This flowed from the fact that the ANC secured 63% of the vote in the local government elections of 2011.
Last year, its support diminished to 53.91%.
The local government election results indicate unequivocally that a change in the political paradigm has occurred.
The results illustrate that the days of ANC hegemony are over and that what is emerging is a system of strong multi-party democracy.
This was accompanied by the ANC’s loss of three important metros and the need for coalition governments in these.
The emergence of a strong multi-party system is due in part to the growth of the DA and the EFF.
In an incisive, bold and thoughtprovoking study, Jakkie Cilliers, an informed political commentator and Institute for Security Studies founder, in his book, Fate of the Nation: 3 Scenarios for South Africa’s Future, categorises and analyses three scenarios:
First, the partial triumph of the so-called traditionalists. This option is the mere continuation of the existing political set-up, based on patronage and corruption, facilitated by an artificial unity and by no split in the ANC, and with Dr Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma elected president of the ANC and Cyril Ramaphosa deputy at the December conference, or the other way round.
This would continue to lead us on a downward trend.
Second, the reformist tradition with a victory for constitutionalists and Ramaphosa elected president, and the routing of the traditionalists and the Zuma faction. This Cilliers indicates would be the most favourable.
Third, the unequivocal triumph of traditionalists, with Dlamini-Zuma elected president and the Ramaphosa faction defeated, and completely sidelined or alienated.
He views this divided scenario as disastrous for South Africa.
In a radio interview Cilliers has, however, indicated that the present intense turmoil in the ANC could bring about unintended and very different consequences.
In an equally interesting book by Theuns Eloff called Turning Point, the author makes out a cogent case for a government of national unity.
This would bring together the most competent and honest politicians to start afresh.
They would set us on the correct path to political and economic rehabilitation, and urgently address the problems of endemic corruption, economic inequality and poverty. How could this come about? What is clear from the results of last year’s elections and from the emergence of coalition governments in Tshwane, Nelson Mandela Bay and Johannesburg is that the party political scene is in significant transition and flux.
This is a beneficial development and furthermore there is a real possibility that in the 2019 general election, the ANC may not secure more than 50% of the national vote and could lose the province of Gauteng.
Our multi-party political system would then require the formation of coalition governments at a national level and possibly in Gauteng as well.
This would be no magic solution as coalition governments are by their very nature inherently unstable, as the problems with the existing coalition government in the Nelson Mandela Bay metro indicates.
Nevertheless, they can work and open up political opportunities for sagacious and courageous leadership.
Furthermore, with the emergence and operation of coalition governments in the metros and other cognate issues such as the probable fracturing of the tripartite alliance, as is taking place at present, this could bring about a reorientation of political parties based on economic policy rather than race, political allegiance and personalities.
Such a state of affairs could indeed result in the option of a government of national unity.
South Africa and its people have infinite potential, and the present crisis of credibility and confidence in the governing ANC and the country could be a prelude for great political opportunities.
What is required is inspired, competent and bold political leadership that will take our country on a high road to political success and economic equality for all its people.