Fears of far-right surge in Bavaria

The right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) is poised to humiliate Chancellor Angela Merkel’s allies in an October 14 vote for Germany’s most influential regional government, an election that could have farreaching implications for national politics.

With blunt anti-Islamic rhetoric and attacks on Merkel’s migrant policy, the AfD is expected to muscle into the regional parliament in Bavaria for the first time.

That could help end one of the iron laws of post-war Germany: the near total domination of one of the richest and most populous states by a regional conservative party that has used its clout there to wield outsized national power for decades.

Polls point to the Christian Social Union (CSU) losing its absolute majority and securing only about 35% of the vote.

The big winners would be the Greens and AfD on about 16% and 12-13% respectively.

“We will inflict pain on the big parties. That’s what motivates us. The chancellor has nothing more to give,” Wolfgang Doerner, 57, a businessman and AfD candidate for the Bavarian assembly, told a cheering crowd of supporters in Nuremberg.

“This vote will be felt in Berlin as well as Munich.”

The CSU has fallen short of an absolute majority in Bavaria’s state assembly only once since 1954, when it missed by two seats in 2008.

Its vote share, usually close to 50%, has not fallen below 43% in 64 years.

That regional power has assured Bavarian CSU leaders a solid grip on senior cabinet positions in the conservative national governments that have dominated post-war Germany.

If the polls are right, the vote will be a heavy blow to CSU leader Horst Seehofer, who props up Merkel’s coalition government and serves as interior minister. –