Is Mboweni in mood to stand against insanity?

Perhaps it’s the pressure, the late nights, the general worry.

I don’t know what it is but I’ve been trying to explain to myself why finance minister and former Reserve Bank governor Tito Mboweni would have a go at me on Twitter deep into the night on June 18.

He had taken offence at what he implied was the increasing use, by myself, of the word “ludicrous” when referring to aspects of ANC policy or strategy or its actions or the lack of them.

He found the word a sign of contempt and disrespect, particularly coming from a white person and directed at a predominantly black organisation, the ANC.

Was I not aware how this might “land”?

I’m only writing about it now because the finance minister’s frame of mind is not unimportant ahead of the emergency Covid-19 budget he is due to present today.

For a start, I’ve always believed that I’m not responsible for the feelings of people who may or may not like something I’ve written.

Until, that is, they tell me. If you tell me I’m brilliant I’m bound in some way to thank you.

If you tell me I have hurt you personally my instinct would be to sympathise and apologise.

So in this case I’m happy to apologise to the minister.

But I went back six columns and could find no recent use of the word “ludicrous”.

I believe it had been in his mind for some time before he tweeted about me.

I know I have used the word during the lockdown, probably to describe some of the rules the government has applied.

Also, when I write, I use the Chambers thesaurus on my iPhone and typing “ludicrous” on that gives me “absurd, ridiculous, preposterous, nonsensical, laughable, farcical, silly, comical, comic, humorous, amusing, hilarious, funny, droll, burlesque, grotesque, outlandish, zany, odd eccentric”.

So when he turns from the business case behind latest R26bn SAA rescue plan to tell me how to speak to him, where does he find, as he then tweeted, “Ludicrus= sportive, idiotic/ unthinkable”?

Meanwhile, let’s let you go and put the finishing touches to your rescue budget.

I truly have no idea how we come out of this with our sovereignty intact, whatever your party may instruct you.

How do you cope with cooperative governance minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma when she argues in court papers that the growth of the illegal cigarette trade under her lockdown ban on selling tobacco is beneficial and is more than happy to blow the sin taxes you should be collecting?

How do you cope when your cabinet colleagues don’t think the problem you face is really all that serious?

There’s little question Mboweni is in trouble.

Bloomberg reported that he had presented forecasts to Nedlac showing national debts levels rising above 100% of GDP by 2025 and to about 114% by the end of the decade.

As far as fiscal sovereignty is concerned, these are extinction levels of debt.

They crush any hope President Cyril Ramaphosa might have of changing the economy post-Covid.

And how does any government, let alone an ANC one, continue to pay welfare to the poor and indigent when all its effort is going to have to go into repaying debt?

If you don’t pay your debts you go bust. The finance minister is well aware.

Going bust means someone has to rescue you and the only games left in town are the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.

The New Development Bank is going to lend us $1bn, (about R17.25bn), but there’ll not be much more coming from there.

The Chinese aren’t stupid with their money.

It gets worse for the poor ANC and its allies, who have been making plans to get the Reserve Bank to come to the rescue with a programme of quantitative easing.

Under this the Bank would buy government debt until such time as it was no longer necessary. But, as it turns out, that would be over governor Letsetja Kganyago’s dead body.

Ramaphosa can thank his lucky stars he has a Reserve Bank governor of this quality.

And it is worth remembering that in the same position as governor, Mboweni would probably have said the same.

Which leaves Ramaphosa looking for someone to put their hand up with an idea.

Can you cut taxes to stimulate spending? How many state-owned companies can we close so they don’t cost any more money?

How do you stimulate an economic boom out of nothing, deep in debt and disease?

The obvious answer would be to let the private sector build infrastructure that pays for itself (and its creators) for 20 years before handing it over to the state.

But Ramaphosa wants a boom that has the state at the centre. It isn’t going to happen like that, which probably means it won’t happen at all.

There’s no more room for magical thinking. An IMF bailout beckons and it’s no good blaming the pandemic.

We were already well on our way. The virus has just speeded things up. The only way out is hard work, austerity and discipline.

Unless ... Well, sad to say it, but central bankers who stand up to politicians almost always lose in the end.

What was that about Kganyago’s dead body?

If Mboweni is in the mood to stand against insanity, then he has a chance to start today.

Not a cent for SAA and stand up for the Reserve Bank.

The National Treasury may not be the most popular department but it remains the most valuable. Let’s hope this budget keeps it that way.