Ace in a hole
Ramaphosa poised to strengthen position as Magashule becomes increasingly isolated
All eyes will be on Luthuli House this weekend when ANC president Cyril Ramaphosa is expected to consolidate his control of the party while his suspended nemesis, Ace Magashule, ponders his next move.
The so-called radical economic transformation (RET) faction, led by Magashule, is bound to wage a formidable pushback campaign at the ANC’s national executive committee (NEC) meeting in an attempt to reverse the embattled secretary-general’s suspension earlier this week. But Ramaphosa’s supporters are confident that if the matter is put to a vote, they will easily emerge victorious.
Years of tension between the men came to a head on Wednesday night when a defiant Magashule unilaterally issued a letter announcing the “suspension” of Ramaphosa, citing allegations around the CR17 saga.
Ramaphosa has been accused of using campaign funding to buy votes at the ANC’s 2017 Nasrec conference, something he has repeatedly denied.
While political analysts have described the latest chapter in the ANC drama as the party going through a renewal process, former Nelson Mandela Bay councillor Andile Lungisa — a well-known Magashule supporter — predicts the ANC will fall unless the infighting ends.
Lungisa, jailed — and later paroled — for smashing a glass jug over a fellow councillor’s head in 2016, pointed out that the PAC, a once-powerful party in the apartheid years, was severely weakened when leaders turned to suspending one another.
The same fate could await the ANC unless it brought the situation in hand, he said.
In the past decade, the ANC’s electoral support dropped to below 60% nationally, with the party losing control of the major metros — including Nelson Mandela Bay — at various times.
Lungisa said Magashule should not have issued the letter “suspending” Ramaphosa.
“I don’t encourage the letter by the SG to president Ramaphosa. Equally so, I don’t encourage the letter from DSG [deputy secretary-general Jessie Duarte suspending Magashule].
“Those two letters are not taking the organisation forward but are tearing the ANC apart,” he said.
Magashule was served with the suspension letter, signed by Duarte, on Monday.
This was after the ANC national working committee (NWC) resolved that party leaders who failed to step aside voluntarily be suspended after the 30-day grace period they were given had lapsed.
The suspension of Magashule, who is facing fraud and corruption charges, means he is forbidden from publicly speaking on behalf of the ANC or lobbying anyone on its behalf. “What killed the PAC was elected leaders in conference suspending and removing other elected leaders,” Lungisa said.
“The ANC is taking the same direction as the PAC with the infighting and that’s the same reason why the PAC is history today,” Lungisa said.
Ramaphosa’s group is confident Magashule’s suspension will be upheld this weekend.
Three NEC members who spoke to the Herald yesterday shared this view.
“They [RET faction] have lost so many NECs before.
“They don’t have the numbers [to mount any sort of pushback].
“Nothing will change at the meeting. Nothing will happen,”
one of the senior figures said.
Another said instead of internal squabbles, the party should be focusing on solving service delivery issues, like the drought in Nelson Mandela Bay.
“The divisions in the party are very concerning but I believe we’ll find each other this weekend.
“Ours is to find ways to improve the lives of our people, such as finding solutions to the water crisis in Gqeberha.
“Instead, we’re focused on internal fights,” she said.
A third NEC member said there was only one letter endorsed by the NEC.
“The letter of the SG was not endorsed by the NEC.
“We do not recognise that letter and it forms no part of our discussions.”
Yesterday, the SA National Civic Organisation (Sanco) in the Free State came out in support of Magashule, demanding an early national conference to remove what it called “counter-revolutionaries within the ANC”.
But Sanco Eastern Cape secretary Tony Duba condemned his Free State comrades.
“They are out of order because the ANC is dealing with its own problems and following due processes.
“The ANC is on the right path. It gives us hope because they are going through renewal,” he said.
The ANC in the Eastern Cape — which was instrumental in Ramaphosa beating Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma for the ANC presidency in 2017 — has been one of the party’s most vocal structures, saying those implicated in corruption should step aside until their legal woes were over.
ANC provincial chair Oscar Mabuyane was one of the first ANC leaders to publicly call on Magashule to step aside.
Asked about recent developments, Mabuyane said there was no crisis in the ANC but “people creating one”.
“We’ll stand with the ANC and advocate for what’s right,” he said.
“No SG has the power to suspend the president. It’ sa joke and people think the idea of renewal was a joke.
“The ANC is bigger than one individual.
“There is only one NEC, one NWC, and the NEC is the only one that can suspend a president should there be a problem,” Mabuyane said.
Nelson Mandela University lecturer and political analyst Ongama Mtimka said the ANC was heading towards a point of renewal.
“Whoever retains the party in the future will do so from a solid base and not shaky ground.”
Another analyst, Professor Mcebisi Ndletyana, said the step-aside resolution was taken a while ago but only found expression when there was a general outcry about the level of corruption pertaining to the procurement of personal protective equipment.
“Currently, the ANC is in pursuit of renewal and the reason it chose to focus on people charged with corruption was to avoid allegations being weaponised among comrades because the ANC is divided,” he said.
Ndletyana said those affected by the resolution would mount some form of fight.
“Suspended people are easy to expel.
“The question that now remains is whether others act as your proxy and speak on your behalf?
“The ANC is not a party about conviction but about ‘what’s in it for me’.
“Those associated with Ace will ask if he’s in a sinking ship, or will it go to shore?
“There’s no indication that Cyril won’t win a re-election.
“This then means that they know their future depends on him,” Ndletyana said.
Another analyst, Ralph Mathekga, said it would be interesting to see who showed up at the NEC meeting.
“Suspended people don’t attend NEC meetings,” he said.
Mathekga said he did not foresee the ANC suffering at the polls on October 27.
“The ANC is probably the worst government when it comes to delivering services but just look at how its done at the recent by-elections held across the country.”
Out of the by-elections held on April 21, the ANC retained 10 wards and won two more — from the DA in the Western Cape and the IFP in KwaZulu-Natal.