Polls open in Italy as right-wing alliance eyes win

Polls opened in Italy yesterday in an election that is forecast to return the country’s most rightwing government since World War 2 and also herald its first woman prime minister.

Voting began at 7am and was set to continue until 11pm last night.

However, the complex calculations required by a hybrid proportional/first-past-the-post electoral law mean it may be many hours before a precise seat count is available.

A right-wing alliance led by Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party appeared on course for a clear victory when the last opinion polls were published two weeks ago.

But with a poll blackout in force in the two weeks before the election, there is still scope for a surprise.

There has been speculation that support for the left-leaning 5-Star Movement, the biggest party in 2018, has picked up in recent days.

A late surge by 5-Star could jeopardise the rightist alliance’s chances of winning a majority in the senate or upper house, complicating the process of forming a government.

Even if there is a clear-cut result, the next government is unlikely to take office before late next month, with the new parliament not meeting until October 13.

Meloni would be the obvious candidate for prime minister as leader of an alliance also featuring Matteo Salvini’s League party and Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia.

That would cap a remarkable rise for Meloni, a 45-yearold from Rome whose party won only 4% of the vote in the last national election in 2018.

Italy’s first autumn national election in more than a century was triggered by party infighting that brought down Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s broad national unity government in July.

Italy has a history of political instability and the next prime minister will lead the country’s 68th government since 1946 and face a host of challenges, notably rising energy costs.

The outcome of the vote will also be watched nervously in European capitals and on financial markets.

EU leaders, keen to preserve unity after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, are concerned that Italy will be a more unpredictable partner than under former European Central Bank chief Draghi.

For markets, there are worries about Italy’s ability to manage a debt pile that amounts to about 150% of GDP.

Meloni plays down her party’s post-fascist roots and portrays it as a mainstream conservative group.

She has pledged to support Western policy on Ukraine and not take undue risks with an economy hit hard by rising prices.

Italy is also benefiting from €192bn (R3.32-trillion) of postCovid EU recovery funds, offering a powerful incentive to stick to agreed reform plans.

However, there are signs of division between Meloni and her allies on foreign policy.

League leader Salvini has criticised the impact of higher energy prices on Italians, blaming it in part on the blowback from Western sanctions against Russia.

Berlusconi sparked outrage late in the campaign when he appeared to defend Russian President Vladimir Putin.