NMU stars in effort to save oceans
● Project to study western Indian Ocean launched as part of ‘Digital Twin’ initiative to bolster marine food security
Nelson Mandela University (NMU) oceanographic researchers have launched a new project to study the western Indian Ocean as part of a groundbreaking international programme to build a supercomputer that can predict the future health of global marine ecosystems.
The data captured by Prof Mike Roberts and his team will be used to check the accuracy of the multimillion-euro Digital Twin of the Ocean computer, a world first being developed by the EU, with support from SA and the UK.
The intention is that the Digital Twin will be able to predict the state of the planet’s oceans until the end of the century if issues like climate change, overfishing and pollution continue unabated.
All eyes are on the western Indian Ocean project because of its mix of diverse ecosystems and species, large coastal population and heavy reliance of these communities on the sea.
The western Indian Ocean includes SA, Mozambique, Madagascar, Tanzania, Kenya, the Seychelles, Mauritius, Comoros and Somalia, and about 60-million people are directly dependent on the ocean for their food security and livelihoods.
The international marine research sector is also watching the NMU project closely because of the pioneering work already done by Roberts and his team on squid.
They found that shifts in the Agulhas Bank ecosystem, possibly a result of climate change, resulted in the chokka fishery collapsing in the Eastern Cape in 2001 and 2013.
As a result, 2,400 fishermen lost their livelihoods and about 35,000 family dependents were affected.
Roberts, who heads the UKSA research chair in ocean science and marine food security, jointly hosted by NMU and the University of Southampton, said this week their chokka findings were a clue to the seriousness of the situation.
“We need a huge model in the form of the Digital Twin to help us anticipate future shifts and if or when the squid fishery crash or something like it could happen again.”
He said the Digital Twin was a digital replica of the oceans.
“It draws on vast amounts of data, models and artificial intelligence to provide highresolution, multidimensional descriptions of all marine systems, with forecasting periods ranging from seasons to multi-decades.
“It is being developed to give scientists, policymakers, fisheries, marine businesses and citizens the power to understand what could happen to the ocean and marine life, and to people reliant on these resources, between now and 2100.”
He said the European Commission was investing €13m (about R264m) for the development of the prototype European Digital Twin Ocean, and initial data was set to be released by the end of the year.
His team’s new project, funded by the UK government, had started with installing a range of instruments in the Mozambican Current.
The current originates between Mozambique and Madagascar and then flows south until it becomes the Agulhas Current roughly off northern KwaZulu-Natal.
“These instruments will collect data on current speed, temperature, ocean productivity, habitats and fish.
“At the same time, we will be researching the human populations in the region and their relationship with the sea.
“We need to identify the tipping points of the western Indian Ocean ecosystem — when these will happen and how this will impact the future of the region’s fisheries.”
Roberts said their studies had already showed some of the effects of climate change as it warmed the western Indian Ocean, or parts of it.
“Ecosystems will start to produce less plankton, on which fish larvae feed. A lean food web means less fish.”
He said the end goal of the Digital Twin was to help countries understand the ocean and the threats it was facing, and thereafter take positive action.
“The hope is they will restore healthy marine and coastal ecosystems, support sustainable blue economy initiatives and in this way achieve marine food security.”
He said parallel to his team’s work in the Mozambican Channel, they were also developing a draft policy paper they hoped to put on the agenda of the UN World Food Security Committee.
“This will be to raise the issue of marine food security in the western Indian Ocean, to catalyse planning and action.
“Governments in the region and the international community urgently need to collaborate on understanding the rate at which changes in the ocean are manifesting.
“Critically, mitigation needs to happen. Time is running out,” he said.