Boks can use the set piece to cause an upset

THE history of rugby is littered with the bones of teams that, supposedly, could not be beaten. For goodness’ sake, think of the last World Cup.

I was there in Brighton when Japan beat the Springboks 34-32 and, ironically, it was one of South African rugby’s greatest occasions.

After that deserved Japan win, the supporters of South Africa applauded loudly when the Japan team did a lap of honour, and treated the Japanese fans to rare displays of magnanimity all the way back to London.

Red-and-white-clad groups were bowed to and clapped all the way down the Brighton platform. Many had tears in their eyes at the generous behaviour experienced. That sportsmanship alone was worth the pain of defeat.

The side rallied and hammered Samoa a week later, beat Wales – with that lovely eightnine innovative move – and then were outplayed, but lost to the mighty All Blacks by just two points in the semi-finals. Two points away from a third World Cup win. We would have beaten Australia.

New Zealand couldn’t lose in the 1999 semi-final against France at Twickenham. When the Kiwis led 24-10, a massacre was on the cards and the All Blacks went for it.

History tells us that Les Bleus gave us the greatest comeback since Lazarus and won 43-31.

It is the same in every generation. In 1951, Scotland had no chance against Wales at Murrayfield but beat them 19-0. That is the equivalent of about 50-0 today.

Google “rugby upsets” by decade. History is littered with those bones. Are you feeling better? I hope so because, my goodness, the Boks are up against it today in Christchurch. Unless we improve, it could be a massacre.

Steve Hansen hit it on the head. The Boks are confused and, despite what we are told, seem not to trust the game plan that is laid out.

Compare that to the All Blacks. Even when down, as they were against the Pumas last week, they just kept at it, wave after wave of attack, forwards and backs, varying pressure, until the dam wall cracked and the Argentinians were blown away. They are believers. We are not. We have not seen the light, and that is the problem.

Are we on the right track? This is even more concerning. Do we know what that right track is? Allister Coetzee says that targeting the New Zealand forwards is the key for our side. He says it will be a massive battle of the set piece.

Nothing wrong with that – except that the key to our game is not the winning of the ball but what we do with it when we have it. We can match their pack. If we kick to their back three, they will run it back at us and we will chase shadows.

Unless we can inject more pace into our backline play, they will tackle us all day. Based on our performances so far, we will not be able to go through multiple phases and construct intricate tries like, for example, the great Wallaby side of 1999 could do. So, what is required?

We need to have our defence watertight to have a chance at all. This means that from No 1 to No 15 we need to concentrate, to spread and to trust every player, inside or out, to make tackles and to avoid penalties in doing so.

An hour of this is not enough. The All Blacks can run away from a side in minutes, as they showed last week. We need to play for 80, which means the bench will be vital.

Also, New Zealand will not be serial offenders, so we will battle to outscore them from the tee. We must take all the points we can, but we need to score tries. Here is the rub.

There is no indication that relentless, expansive Lions rugby is part of our plan. That is a pity because it is great to watch and can succeed with practice. But, clearly, it is not Allister’s way. Fair enough.

So what is possible under his more conservative regime? We can kick for the corners and try and maul our way over. Fine, but we need much more work on that. It is an art as much as a science, as Ireland showed us on their tour. Also, the Kiwis defend better than most from there. We need more in our attacking arsenal than the maul.

I believe the answer lies in bucking a trend of rugby. For almost the whole span of modern rugby, set play has been there to create pressure from which sides can score. Good kicking can do it and so can constructed loose breakdowns from which strikes can be launched. You set it up from the tight and draw defenders into rucks and mauls and then move it quickly to make use of overlaps and weak defensive areas. That is the way it was.

Now teams do not commit but spread. This is the point. Often from the set piece there are fewer defenders than from the loose. This is where speed and direct running, with a hint of guile, could be lethal and could suit us.

Did you see that first All Black try last week? It came from set play, with two passes and a hint of deception. I can see the Boks winning quality set ball and, at speed, causing mayhem with rehearsed, simple, but effective set moves. Our wings are smart, one centre has creativity and Goosen is a good adder-on, given what we have seen so far. Even if we see signs of a realistic, achievable game plan emerging today, it will be something. It will be a ray of hope.

Sadly, the best cause for optimism is that we seem to have no chance, and that reminds us of dem bones. Oh, how the mighty have fallen.