We’ve heard it all before
PRESIDENT Cyril Ramaphosa loves to speak to the nation.
Astonishingly, for a man who has yet to complete his first term in office, this was President Cyril Ramaphosa’s seventh State of the Nation Address. This was on top of his almost monthly “Address to the Nation” during the pandemic lockdown.
Also, let’s not forget the ANC’s annual ritual of the January 8 Birthday Statement. This is Sonalite for the comrades, with the same boasts of past achievements and assertions of glories to come, but – like the now excommunicated Comrade Carl Niehaus – dressed up in pseudo-revolutionary camouflage.
If one considers that all this mouth flapping comes from a man who, during the same period, held only one press conference, a pattern can be seen. Our president is far better at talking than doing.
If after listening to Thursday night’s Sona, delayed for 45 minutes by the EFF in red onesies behaving like petulant children at story time, it felt as if you’d somehow heard it all before, that’s good. You’ve been paying attention. You have heard it all before. Several times.
Last year, the theme was hardship, the innate resilience of South Africans, the need for social compacts and a determination “to leave no one behind”. This year, the theme was “trying times” with “many people suffering … worried … uncertain and … without hope”. But South Africans are resilient and “together we will overcome” the crises and “leave no one behind”.
In Sona 2022, the president punted the success of his i nfrastructure fund, which then had commitments of R776 billion towards its R1.2 trillion target. Sona 2022 reported another R367bn in commitments and upped the target to R2 trillion by 2028.
Unfortunately, “commitments” is just a euphemism for “promises” and have no legal, enforceable weight. If the electrical, road, port and rail infrastructures are not rapidly restored, the “commitments” will evaporate like mist before the scorching sun. What was encouraging, however, was that Ramaphosa reported R232bn of work was under construction and a further R600bn allocated.
And while it is similarly encouraging that it has, at last, dawned on the ANC that Eskom is the priority problem – Ramaphosa described it as an “existential threat to our economy and social fabric” – the president’s “solutions” may make things worse.
First, is the declaration of yet another National State of Disaster (SOD), which will be overseen by his most outspoken foe, the Minister of Co-operative Governance and Traditional Affairs, Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma. Presumably, NDZ will bite the dust in the Cabinet reshuffle which has been “imminent”, according to ANC leaks, for two months. There are, however, many in the ANC leadership who want Ramaphosa to keep her in the post.
It’s not clear how the SOD will, in practical terms, make any difference to sorting out Eskom, except for making it possible to bypass some of the more onerous tender requirements, which slow the procurement of spare parts. The most striking outcomes of the last SOD, implemented under the tender care of the very same Dlamini Zuma, were extraordinary levels of corruption and the looting of at least R15bn of emergency funds, as well as farcical restrictions on individual liberties.
SOD-2 will be challenged in the courts by the DA and an array of civil society organisations.
Ramaphosa also announced the creation of a minister of electricity in the Presidency, “to assume full responsibility for overseeing all aspects of the electricity crisis response”. That “full responsibility” and “single point of command” will, however, be tempered by having to liaise with the minister of public enterprises – currently Pravin Gordhan – who remains the shareholder representative of Eskom, and will be establishing the separate transmission company and implementing the just energy transition programme.
And he or she will have to deal with the minister of mineral resources and energy (currently the obstructive and intractable Gwede Mantashe), who manages all regulations that affect Eskom, and the National Treasury. And, of course, the minister of co-operative governance, who’ll be running SOD-2 and, on previous experience, will have more de facto powers than the president, as well as being free of parliamentary oversight.
In essence, Ramaphosa’s solution to the bitter rivalry between Gordhan and Mantashe has been to try to avoid conflict by giving the job to a third person. Needless to say, neither will be placated.
“This State of the Nation Address,” Ramaphosa told us on Thursday night, “is about seeing hope where there is despair.” But, in reality, hope is flickering like a candle in high winds during load shedding. The change in the national mood since last year’s Sona has been remarkable. Last year, despite Sona-2022 being a cut-and-paste version of Sona-2021, the media, while expressing some reservations, was upbeat.
News24 editor-in-chief Adriaan Basson wrote that Ramaphosa was “a man on a mission” and “unwavering” in signalling that it was the function of business, not the state, to create jobs.
“Even (Ramaphosa’s) biggest critics must admit that (it) was the most determined and confident display we have seen from him yet.”
Vrye Weekblad editor and columnist Max du Preez, normally harsh in his assessments of the government, wrote that Sona was “a tour de force of change, recognition of shortcomings and vision”.
More circumspect was the tenor of the business sector’s response, captured well by BusinessLIVE’s editorial at the time. It wrote that while Ramaphosa was correct that South Africans were engaged “in a battle for the country’s soul”, it was worth remembering that it was the ANC that dragged us into the war.
The president would have to be “bolder, fiercer and more direct in battling his adversaries”.
While the much-anticipated Cabinet reshuffle may yet prove me wrong by revealing a more vigorous Ramaphosa, I doubt it. In the meanwhile, over the past year, the South African situation has deteriorated markedly further.
This is a country practised at igniting and crushing hope.