Country trembles with fear, excitement

APPROACHING our most momentous election in 30 years, the country oscillates between giddy excitement and extreme anxiety.

The former is triggered by a possible end to the absolute grip on power of the ANC. The latter stems from the same scenario.

Excitement is understandable. After decades of ANC electoral invincibility, all the parties arrayed against the ANC are scrabbling to work out what to do if, as now seems likely, the ANC vote percentage drops into the mid-40s.

Then there’s the anxiety. That’s not only triggered by the negative impact on investments and our ties with the Western bloc should the ANC shift radically left. There is also concern over the potential chaos of a high-stakes free-for-all in a country where many politicians are criminally reckless in threatening violence.

As a result, the political climate hasn’t been so charged since the fraught 1994 elections. In that sense, at least, things are calmer and democracy more embedded.

That’s not to say there’s no trepidation over physical safety. Former president Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe party (MKP) warned of “anarchy and riots” if the ANC succeeded in having it disbarred from the election or if MKP was “robbed” at the ballot box.

In December, the SA Local Government Association said the situation was particularly tense in KZN, with increasing political violence and the assassination in 2023 of at least 18 ward councillors.

General Roland de Vries, a former Deputy Chief of the South African Army, this week warned that the country was a tinderbox that might at any moment explode into violence and destruction, reliant on a government that lacked the capacity and will to protect its citizens.

“Very little resilience is left in the South African state. A less serious incident may spiral out of control due to the state’s inability to respond effectively, giving political factions the opportunity to escalate the situation.”

In a BizNews interview, De Vries says the inability of law enforcement agencies to deal with large-scale unrest, evident during the July 2021 riots in KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng, serves as “a template for planning the next wave” of violence.

In the politically febrile atmosphere surrounding the May 29 election, there was a range of “trigger events” that criminals and political troublemakers could exploit to incite anarchy.

Central to this is, of course, the malevolent but canny Zuma. Initially, the ANC’s response to the launch late last year of MKP was scornful disdain. Such arrogance, coupled with Ramaphosa’s loathing of conflict and the party’s abysmal organisational skills – it doesn’t register trademarks, misses regulatory and appeal deadlines, forgets to file motions and so on – has cost the party dearly.

By the time the ANC awoke to the threat posed by MKP, it was too late.

First, an ANC Electoral Court application to have MKP’s electoral registration declared unlawful failed. Then the same court overturned the decision of the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) to remove Zuma from the ballot on grounds of a 15-month sentence for contempt of court, which was never served because of a pardon from Ramaphosa.

And finally, this week, in the Durban High Court, the ANC lost, with costs awarded against it, its claim that it held copyright on the logo adopted by MKP.

The IEC is appealing the rejection of the removal of Zuma from the ballot to the Constitutional Court. It says it must urgently, for the sake of the integrity of the elections, have clarity on what is an important matter of principle.

On Wednesday, after cogitating for two weeks, the ConCourt sprung belatedly into action. Zuma’s legal team was given 24 hours to file an answering affidavit, if MKP wished to oppose the IEC application.

This sudden haste is peculiar. The deadline is unreasonable and the ConCourt will surely have to accede to the Zuma team’s request for an extension to April 30. That’s barely four weeks before election day.

What makes the timing even tighter is that nobody who is party to this appeal process has yet seen the Electoral Court’s reasoning for its decision, because it has not yet been handed down.

Failing judicial co-operation in taking Zuma out of the election, some appear to be banking on divine intervention.

This week News24 ran a highly speculative story under the headline “Zuma’s ill-health sparks concern after recent falls”.

Based on “four independent sources”, the story implies that Zuma is a dead man walking. Even if he were to make it through to May 29, his failing health might result in him not being around for long afterwards. The subtext is: don’t waste your votes on MKP, folks.

All these last-minute manoeuvrings by the ANC play directly into Zuma’s hand, giving him new examples with which to bulk his well-worn narrative of victimisation by the ANC, the judiciary and the forces of white monopoly capital.

It also indicates an ANC that’s rattled and under pressure. Politicians under pressure often make bad decisions.