Fragile alliance

HAVING called an early election in an attempt to strengthen his authority, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has, in the end, crippled himself.

The right-wing coalition due to take office this week will have a majority of just one vote in the parliament – meaning that any one of the 61 fractious members of the five-party coalition can bring it down at any time.

Netanyahu’s enemies, including those at the White House, have little reason to celebrate. The cabinet that takes office will be among the most illiberal in the country’s history, including ministers who hope to strip power from Israel’s supreme court – which has been an effective check on government excesses – and to weaken human rights groups and other critics.

While the coalition lasts, there will be next to no chance of resuming Israeli-Palestinian peace talks. That doesn’t much change the previous status quo: six years of futile efforts by US President Barack Obama’s administration have shown that neither Netanyahu nor Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas are prepared to make the compromises necessary for Palestinian statehood.

Abbas, however, can be expected to press for action by the UN and for a Security Council resolution setting the terms for an independent Palestine. That, in turn, will require Obama to decide whether to continue shielding Israel from such action or to support it, in what would be a momentous change in US policy. As it is, Obama and Netanyahu will continue to joust over the Iranian nuclear accord.

Despite exhibiting an animus for Netanyahu, Obama has, at least, pledged to maintain military and intelligence cooperation with Israel.

He no doubt hopes that the new coalition will unravel and Netanyahu will be forced into new elections or far-reaching concessions to the Labour Party.

He shouldn’t count on it: Obama’s wisest course would be to avoid exacerbating his conflict with Netanyahu while both remain in office.