Zuma’s chance to clear the fog
The president must shed light on key policies and show that the cabinet is on same page as his inner circle
IAM hard-pressed to think of one concrete thing President Jacob Zuma will say when he delivers his State of the Nation address tomorrow to convince South Africans that the government will this year do more to promote national unity and radically improve the depressed economy for the benefit of all.
Getting these two things right this time will serve the government and the country well, given the high levels of racial polarisation in our society and diminished levels of public trust toward politicians, civil servants and traditional leaders.
Right about now the public could use some dose of reassurance that, no matter how chaotic our politics have become following the changing political landscape brought about by the outcome of the 2016 municipal elections and the subsequent by-elections as well as the bumpy road ahead of the December ANC national conference, our elected representatives at all levels of government will uphold the oath of office they took: to promote that which will advance and to oppose all that may harm the republic, and to devote themselves to the well-being of the republic and all its people.
My sense is that the difficult question on whether anyone should pay serious attention to what a president nearing an end of his term of office has to say looms large in the minds of ordinary people.
I am among those who ask: Is this going to be another year in which we experience an administration immobilised by multiple centres of gravity, with more fractiousness and freelancing on economic policy?
Will the speech convey a convincing message that the cabinet is on the same page as the president’s inner circle? Will it be delivered with a trustworthy tone of voice providing public clarity in cases where multiple balls and trial balloons are airborne?
While I am hopeful on the one hand it will lift the fog covering key policy decisions taken in the Union Buildings, on the other hand, I have reservations that it’s likely to chronically shroud the policy-making process on issues where government needs business and civil society allies to have certainty about their shared objectives.
And that fog threatens to descend more dramatically when considering the proposed implementation of the R3 500 minimum wage policy, the tug of war around the adoption of budgets for the coalition municipal councils screaming in the mist, the irritation of organised labour by the illegal use of economic migrants by the likes of Chinese State Company called CBMI Construction that was awarded a tender for a R1.2 billion project at PPC’s Slurry plant in the North West in 2015, as well as the threat of a collapse of the disbursement system for social grants to over 15 million beneficiaries.
With every unexpected event, every unlooked-for crisis, what the Union Buildings says in real time will matter much more than the phrases in the president’s annual speech.
The speech comes at a fraught moment. As the president speaks, civil society and Sassa will be preparing legal papers seeking a court judgment on how to deal with government failure under his watch to replace a contract with Cash Paymaster for the payment of social grants that was declared invalid in 2014.
The president must give assurance that there will be no disruption to the payment of existing social grants, or risk irreparable damage in the eyes of the electorate.
Also, if concerns and frustration expressed by ordinary citizens at the public hearings conducted by the High Level Panel on the Assessment of Key Legislation and the Acceleration of Fundamental Change can serve as a cue to the president, the speech should be bold on addressing unemployment and poverty, accelerated government spending on public infrastructure and land restitution, fighting against crime and corruption, as well as more spending on basic and higher education.
Increasingly under this administration, access to land has occupied centre stage at a time when more and more incidents of unscrupulous traditional leaders who are profiting from sale of communal land are exposed.
Given the lukewarm attitude of government towards the implicated leaders and the poor record of government protection of vulnerable rural communities, the president is expected to spell out a plan of action to prevent the spread of violent clashes in the affected communities. The high levels of unemployment and poverty remain a thorny issue that must be addressed through bold leadership in an environment of low economic growth forecasts and the hanging dark cloud of downgrading of South
Infighting over leadership in the alliance threatens to unleash chaos everywhere
Africa by the international rating agencies. The unrelenting drought and adverse weather conditions seriously threaten food security and livelihoods of millions, especially the poor relying on government social grants.
The infighting for leadership positions in the ANC-SACP-Cosatu alliance threatens to unleash chaos everywhere, from the government departments that do not live up to the batho pele values and principles to state-owned companies that fail to implement their mandates, as reflected in the latest auditor-general’s reports and the departmental annual reports that are currently under scrutiny in Parliament.
These issues, and many others have been subject of discussions at both the ANC lekgotla and cabinet lekgotla.
Because of the loose pronouncements made following these important meetings, public expectations are high and once more underpinned by justified concerns about whether President Zuma’s speech will inspire national action that will steer South Africa through turbulent waters.
President Zuma is not a popular president any more, he has not preserved an electoral majority that first elected him into office, his team in government is not particularly coherent.
If he can’t provide clarity and reassurance and a little light around his agenda for the months ahead, it will be very easy for a fog-bound Presidency at the Union Building to simply run aground even before he gets a chance to say the last word on who his successor should be in Luthuli House.
Nyembezi is researcher, policy analyst, human rights activist and board chairperson for the Election Monitoring Network.