Factory data hit emerging markets
THE TRUMP administration plans to propose slapping a 25 percent tariff on $200 billion (R2.63 trillion) of imported Chinese goods after initially setting them at 10 percent, in a bid to pressure Beijing into making trade concessions, a source familiar with the plan said on Tuesday.
President Donald Trump’s administration said on July 10 that it would seek to impose the 10 percent tariffs on thousands of Chinese imports.
They include food products, chemicals, steel and aluminium and consumer goods ranging from dog food, furniture and carpets to car tyres, bicycles, baseball gloves and beauty products.
While the tariffs would not be imposed until after a period of public comment, raising the proposed level to 25 percent could escalate the trade dispute between the world’s two biggest economies.
There was no immediate reaction from the Chinese government. In July it accused the US of bullying and warned it would hit back.
Investors fear an escalating trade war between Washington and Beijing could hit global growth, and prominent US businesses have condemned Trump’s aggressive tariffs.
Stock markets edged up globally on Tuesday on a report that the US and China were seeking to resume talks to defuse the budding trade war.
Representatives of US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He have been speaking privately as they seek to restart negotiations.
A spokesperson for the US Trade Representative’s Office declined to comment on the proposed tariff rate increase or on whether changing them would alter the deadlines laid out for the comment period before implementation.
In early July, the US government imposed 25 percent tariffs on an initial $34 billion of Chinese imports. Beijing retaliated with matching tariffs on the same amount of US exports to China.
Preparing
Washington is preparing to also impose tariffs on an extra $16 billion of goods in coming weeks, and Trump has warned he may ultimately put them on over half a billion dollars of goods – roughly the total amount of US imports from China last year.
The $200 billion list of goods targeted for tariffs – which also include Chinese tilapia fish, printed circuit boards and lighting products – would have a bigger impact on consumers than previous tariffs.
Erin Ennis, senior vice-president of the US China Business Council, said a 10 percent tariff on these products is already problematic, but more than doubling that to 25 percent would be much worse.
“Given the scope of the products covered, about half of all imports from China are facing tariffs, including consumer goods,” Ennis said. “The cost increases will be passed on to customers, so it will affect most US pocketbooks.”
Trump had said he would implement the $200 billion round as punishment for China’s retaliation against the initial tariffs aimed at forcing change in China’s joint venture, technology transfer and other trade-related policies.
He also has threatened a further round of tariffs on $300 billion of Chinese goods. The combined total of over $500 billion of goods would cover virtually all Chinese imports into the US.
The US Trade Representative’s office initially had set a deadline for final public comments on the 10 percent proposed tariffs to be filed by August 30, with public hearings scheduled for August 20-23.
It typically has taken several weeks after the close of public comments for the tariffs to be activated. – Reuters WEAK factory activity data and a US proposal for higher tariffs on $200 billion (R2.6 trillion) of Chinese imports weighed on investor appetite for emerging-market stocks yesterday, while a stronger dollar created headwinds for currencies.
MSCI’s benchmark emerging-stocks index fell 0.2 percent in early trade after discouraging data out of China set the tone, before recovering to trade flat in European hours.
A private survey showed that Chinese manufacturing grew at the slowest pace in eight months in July as export orders declined in their worst slump since June 2016.
Chinese mainland shares tumbled 2 percent to a near two-week low, their worst daily loss in a month. Hong Kong shares fell 0.9 percent, while the yuan weakened 0.2 percent offshore. The yuan has suffered its worst four-month fall on record.
Investor sentiment was also crushed by Washington’s plans to propose higher tariffs of 25 percent on $200bn worth of Chinese imports, after initially setting them at 10 percent. This revived fears of an escalating trade war, even as Bloomberg reported that the US and China were seeking to restart negotiations.
The worry is that tit-fortat tariffs will crimp global growth, by affecting integrated supply chains and hitting export-oriented emerging economies hard.
Other manufacturing surveys from across emerging Asia told a similar story to China’s, with South Korean factory activity contracting for a fifth month, marking the worst slump since November 2016.
In emerging Turkish manufacturing slowed.
The outperformers included Indonesia, which rose 1.6 percent, and South Korea, up 0.5 percent, with the latter’s July exports up 6.2 percent year-on-year. Tech-heavy Taiwan also got a boost, up 0.4 percent to two-week highs after Apple beat expectations for its quarterly results.
Currencies were mainly weaker, with Turkey’s lira among the biggest fallers, down 0.4 percent, a day after the central bank sharply raised its inflation forecast for this year and next. – Reuters Europe, Russian, and Polish activity also