Winter Is Over deserves another chance
MAYBE you couldn’t call him a topical tip – not if the weather forecast is right – but Winter Is Over looks worth another chance in the opener at Durbanville today after inexplicably flopping at Kenilworth early in the month.
The Justin Snaith grey started odds-on that day on the strength of all the promise he had shown when second on debut but he never got into it and managed only a bitterly disappointing fifth.
Snaith
The trainer was mystified and Chris Snaith confirms that nothing showed up except for a conviction that the horse needs further. That is not encouraging - particularly given that today’s Durbanville mile takes less getting than the Kenilworth one – but sometimes it pays not to be swayed by one bad run.
Horses are not machines and, like any of us, they can have an off day for no apparent reason.
That exciting first run impression still remains, at least in this writer’s eyes, and he is well drawn.
You could argue that
Richard Fourie’s decision to side with Silver Host – two lengths behind Winter Is Over when the latter made his debut – is a significant vote of no confidence in the selection and you could be right.
The bookmakers think so – most have Silver Host favourite at around 16-10.
Louis
Mxothwa
takes
over
on Winter Is Over who was 17-10 yesterday.
The betting might suggest that the race is a Snaith benefit but the form book indicates otherwise. Mist Of Time (11-2) has been running well over further while Marcus Adamus (15-1), disappointing last time, has a chance on his previous run.
Furthermore the Andre Nel newcomer Bad Boy Plays is a son of champion racemare Bad Girl Runs and has been backed from 15-1 to 8-1.
Anse Lazio
Nel’s Anse Lazio is as short as 7-10 for the 2 400m handicap after skating up over the trip at Kenilworth last month.
As a general rule punters should avoid betting at odds-on – even if the horse wins you benefit by less than the amount of your stake – but Richard Fourie’s mount won so easily that he is hard to oppose even though he is 4kg worse with Meliora for 5 ¾ lengths and Bold Assassin for 6 ¾ lengths.
The Snaith-Fourie combination have the favourite or the joint favourite in five of the eight races including La De Da in the Tabonline.co.za Maiden (race three). The filly has an obvious chance but the form of fellow 28-10 shot Larentina is almost as good and she gets the vote as her draw is significantly better.