COVID-19 NEED NOT OVERWHELM US

THE Covid-19 virus is overwhelming us. It is overwhelming the world. It is an event that has not been witnessed in the last 80 years. It is decimating the global economy.

And it’s happening right in front of us with most us having no capacity to stop it. But does it need to overwhelm us?

The number of global infections as I write this is 345 000. That represents 0.004% of our global population. The number of deaths stands at close to 15 000.

This represents an overall mortality rate of 4% – although the actual mortality rate is estimated to be lower due to those who have symptoms which are mild and have not been tested. In China, the initial epicentre of the pandemic, life is starting to return to normal and local transmissions of infections are lower.

In Japan, South Korea and Singapore, effective systems to reduce infections have been shown to work. And the deaths are proportionally much higher in older people, and negligible in young children and babies.

Many would argue that the local context of South Africa matters, and it does. We have the highest proportion of people living with HIV and a public health system that is under serious pressure.

Therefore, it was important that we acted early in the pandemic. It is also important that many people living with HIV are being treated with ARV’s, which have proved an effective mechanism to treat infection – many patients have been able to survive serious infections such as tuberculosis and pneumonia.

The spread is what is particularly concerning – the virus seems to spread like wildfire and survives outside the body.

Therefore, the social distancing mechanisms put in place are so important – the challenge will come about in relation to the workplace

– it is extremely hard to socially distance in the workplace without a shutdown, but the shutdown is going to harm the economy.

The economy is heavily affected – we are seeing both small and big business being affected – retail, services, hospitality and tourism. However, all sectors will eventually be affected as global demand reduces and this is for an economy already under severe strain.

So, this is the question then – how to balance the health interests of an entire population against the public economic interest effect of shutting down the entire country. Employers have responded positively with many introducing rotational work schedules.

Our Unemployment Insurance Fund will have a huge role to play given that it has built up years of reserves for exactly this type of crisis.

The Department of Small Business Development together with the Public Investment Corporation, National Treasury and the Department of Trade and Industry, working together with organised business will also need to manage economic stimulus.

Agility will be of critical importance as many small businesses are already affected by the crisis – at a time like this keeping money flowing in the economy is key.

And perhaps the time has come to introduce a universal basic income for the unemployed who cannot qualify for social protection.

The world will look very different on the other side of this pandemic. It is devastating, but it need not overwhelm us.