Are high food prices here to stay?

FOOD prices around the world soared to record levels this year as the Russia-Ukraine war slashes key exports of wheat and fertiliser from those countries, at the same time as droughts, floods and heat, fuelled by climate change claim more harvests.

Wheat prices hit a 14-year peak in March, and maize prices reached the highest ever recorded, the International Panel of Experts on Sustainable Food Systems (IPES) said.

This has made basic staples more expensive – or harder to find in many countries, especially the poorest.

Climate change, widespread poverty and conflicts are now combining to create “endemic and widespread” risks to global food security – which means higher food prices may be the new normal, unless action is taken to curb the threats.

IPES suggests not only cutting emissions swiftly to limit climate change but also tackling commodity speculation, giving debt relief, cutting reliance on chemical fertilisers, reshaping trade and shoring up national grain reserves.

If these are neglected, the world will find itself “sleepwalking into the catastrophic and systematic food crises of the future”, IPES noted.

Russia and Ukraine supply about 30% of global wheat exports, but those have fallen since the conflict.

National stocks of wheat – mostly eaten in the countries where it is grown – remain relatively high.

But the drop in exports from Russia and Ukraine has driven up competition for remaining wheat, leading to higher costs.

Almost 40% of Africa’s wheat imports come from Ukraine and Russia, while rising global wheat prices have sent bread prices in Lebanon 70% higher, IPES said.

The problem “must be urgently addressed” if the world wants to ensure more stable food prices.