World could see 1.5ºC of warming in next five years: WMO

THE world faces a 50% chance of warming of 1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels, if only briefly, by 2026, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) said this week.

That does not mean the world would be crossing the long-term warming threshold of 1.5ºC, which scientists have set as the ceiling for avoiding catastrophic climate change.

But a year of warming at 1.5ºC could offer a taste of what crossing that long-term threshold would be like.

“We are getting measurably closer to temporarily reaching the lower target of the Paris Agreement,” said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas.

The likelihood of exceeding 1.5ºC for a short period has been rising since 2015, with scientists in 2020 estimating a 20% chance and revising that last year up to 40%. Even one year at1.5ºC of warming can have dire impacts, such as killing many of the world’s coral reefs and shrinking Arctic sea ice cover.

“Loss and damage associated with, or exacerbated by, climate change is already occurring, some of it likely irreversible for the foreseeable future,” said Maxx Dilley, deputy director of climate at the WMO.