El Niño: SA farmers cautious in 2024/25 winter crop season
LOCAL farmers have remained cautious about the 2024/25 winter crop season after witnessing the damage of unfavourable weather conditions during the 2023/24 season.
This is according to Agricultural Business Chamber (Agbiz) chief economist Wandile Sihlobo as farmers of wheat, barley, canola, oats, and sweet lupines appeared to lack appetite to plant.
The farmers’ intentions-to-plant data released by the Crop Estimates Committee last week signalled a 3% year-on-year decline in South Africa’s 2024/25 winter crop plantings to 798 800 hectares.
Sihlobo yesterday said the decline in farming was primarily in wheat, which was down 3% year-on-year to 520 200 hectares.
“The barley plantings could also fall 5% year-on-year to 102 000 hectares, and the oats plantings could be at 20 500, down 26% year on year, and sweet lupines at 15 000 hectares, down 6% year-on-year,” he said.
“Canola is the only winter crop whose area plantings could lift 8% yearon-year to 141 100 hectares. Admittedly, it is still too early, and the farmers will adjust their planting decisions in the coming weeks as they progress with the seasonal activity.”
Sihlobo added that the El Niño cycle seemed to have ended after a scorching summer season that led to significant crop failure.
However, he said while an end to an El Niño was always a welcomed development, it came at a time when the 2023/24 summer crop season was on its tail end.
“Therefore, this update on weather conditions will not have a material impact on harvest prospects. If anything, ending an El Niño cycle would mean a normal transition into a winter season,” he said.
“Such normal weather conditions would favour the drying up of mature crops in the summer crop-growing regions, as well as improved harvesting conditions.
“It would also mean normal to favourable weather conditions for the winter crop-growing regions.”
Sihlobo said South Africa could soon transition into a favourable rainy season for South Africa’s agriculture in the coming months.
After a drier February and March, Sihlobo said the start of April brought some rainfall in various regions of South Africa, which should support the winter crop-planting activity.
He said the soil moisture had improved in some regions.
“With the typical weather conditions returning, the start of the season may be reasonably favourable. Furthermore, the better water-levels in the South African dams because of the start of the year rainfall also supports the winter crop season for regions that produce under irrigation,” he said.
Grain SA economist Marguerite Pienaar said: “The decline in winter grain crops intentions to plant could possibly be ascribed to the profit margins of winter grain farmers that are under strain.”