Opec can’t stop oil price decline on its own, Algerian minister remarks
THE ORGANISATION of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) could do little to halt the oil price decline on its own and needed producers from outside the group to help in reducing global supplies, Algeria’s energy minister said.
“A supply reduction by Opec alone cannot really guarantee a return to oil market stability,” Salah Khebri said at an event in Algiers. As the 12-member group of crude producing nations accounts for 40 percent of the world’s supply, “there should be steps taken within Opec and with non-Opecs”.
Khebri called earlier this month for an Opec emergency meeting because of the continued decline in oil prices, which dropped by a half from a year ago amid rising production from the US.
Oil and gas sales account for about 60 percent of Algeria’s budget revenue and 95 percent of its export income, according to the International Monetary Fund.
Algeria’s initiative to co-ordinate an Opec response to tumbling crude prices had the backing of cash-strapped fellow members Libya and Venezuela.
It was met with no public response from Opec’s top producer Saudi Arabia, which engineered at the November 27 meeting of the group a shift in its policy away from the historic role of managing prices by adjusting supply.
Saudi Arabia instead lobbied Opec to preserve market share in the hope that crude prices would recover when higher cost producers such as US shale companies are forced out of the market. The group stuck to the same policy at its last meeting in June.
Financial muscle
Brent oil, the global benchmark grade, was 30c lower at $48.44 (R623) a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange at 9.31am London time. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was at $41.52 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down 35c.
WTI might head “into the $30s” on crude oversupply, “huge” inventory overhangs and limited demand, London-based consultants Energy Aspects said on Monday. “Algeria does not have the financial muscle of Gulf Arab oil exporters,” Robin Mills, a Dubai-based analyst at Manaar Energy Consulting, said.
“Unlike Iran or Iraq, it does not have the capacity to raise crude output; it’s a relatively small, high-cost and declining oil producer among its Opec peers.”
Algeria’s financial savings, including government spending on housing and subsidies on fuels and food, have been instrumental in shielding the country of 40 million from strife that swept through the Middle East and North Africa since 2011, toppling the rulers of Yemen, Egypt and neighbouring Libya.
“The country can increase its oil and gas output, and has renewable energy development projects, but that’s more of a medium-term perspective,” Francis Perrin, a director of Paris- based energy consultants Stratener, said. “In the short term, Algeria’s only solution is to dip into the currency reserves.”
Algeria’s foreign reserves totalled $158.4 billion in March, 18 percent lower than a year earlier, according to the latest available data. – Bloomberg
WTI may head ‘into the $30s’ on crude oversupply, ‘huge’ inventory overhangs and limited demand.