Africa could be the most populous continent by 2050

AFTER America dominated the 20th century, a view formed that Asia would be the next to lead the world in economic and cultural influence. Africa may have something to say about that before the century is out.

Africa will claim three of the world’s 10 most populous countries in 2050, according to projections released yesterday by Washington’s Population Reference Bureau (PRB).

The largest of those, Nigeria, will be a mere 1 million people shy of the US’s size, with the Democratic Republic of Congo and Ethiopia entering the list. They replace Russia and Mexico, with the former’s exit leaving Europe with no country on the top 10 list.

Key to the countries’ growth? Babies. While the US and other developed countries struggle to adapt their labour forces to an ageing population, African countries are experiencing a baby boom.

Niger, South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Somalia and Chad have the highest fertility rates in the world.

“The population gains are also due to a decline in mortality rates from improvements in public health,” said Peter Goldstein, the vice-president of the PRB, who oversaw production of its 2015 World Population Data Sheet. “Africa will be a key population growth driver for the next few decades.”

That may be one reason the majority of Africans surveyed by the Pew Research Center believe today’s children will be better off financially than their parents when they grow up.

Looking further east, China is now the world’s most populous nation, though it’s seen being lapped by India by 2050, according to PRB, which analyses and disseminates demographic data and research.

“China has for several decades focused on driving down fertility rates,” Goldstein said. “India’s population is growing at a relatively moderate pace. But China’s projected fertility rates will be below replacement level.” – Bloomberg