New leaders have their work cut out
IN JANUARY this year, Sri Lankan voters, contrary to expectations, threw out the authoritarian and aggressive Mahinda Rajapaksa, and elected a gentle Maithripala Sirisena as the president.
At that time, everyone believed Rajapaksa would settle quietly into a life of retirement and introspect on why he lost. This was not the case. After doing away with an omnipotent executive presidency, Sirisena dissolved parliament to hold elections and usher in a new political order where the prime minister and new legislature had more powers.
Rajapaksa, a great believer in astrology – who is often called “Lord of the Rings” for the number of rings he wears on his fingers to ward off evil spirits and propitiate angry Gods – sensed an opportunity to return to power, this time as a prime minister.
His move riled Sirisena, chairman of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party, as well as all those who did not want the return of his thuggish rule. Interestingly, Sirisena and Rajapaksa belong to the same party.
On Monday, in a closely fought election, the people of Sri Lanka again rejected Rajapaksa’s bid to return to power. Instead they gave a stirring endorsement to Sirisena’s attempts at political reforms, and to the quiet leadership provided by Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and his United National Party, which fell just a few seats short of a simple majority in a 225-member house. Wickremesinghe is likely to get the support of some MPs from Rajapaksa’s party.
Will the former president accept his defeat? This issue was raised by an aide of Sirisena who told a wire service: “Mahinda has to compromise – resign from politics and parliament, and settle down as a former president, or face the legal consequences.”
It seems unlikely though, as Rajapaksa may think that he could only protect himself from these cases if he is in power.
Rajapaksa has a lot to fear. He and his family members, who were all enjoying power for the last 10 years of his rule, are being probed for corruption in projects that were funded by Chinese companies. Sirisena’s election campaign earlier this year targeted the Chinese companies, exposing how their bribes to the top leadership were contributing to the loss of sovereignty of their country.
Rajapaksa’s tilt towards China was questioned and resented. Sirisena put on hold the $1.4 billion (R18bn) Colombo Port City and other projects that are part of China’s Maritime Silk Route (MSR) initiative. Hence the election results have major geo-strategic implications, as they will decide the fate of the MSR in Sri Lanka.
The question now is will Sirisena and Wickremesinghe allow Chinese funding in these projects under the same terms as agreed by Rajapaksa, or will they be renegotiated?
Although Wickremesinghe is considered close to the US, Europe and India, there is a strong likelihood of Sri Lanka getting a better deal from the Chinese, who are keen to finish the project as early as possible.
For Rajapaksa, trouble may also come from the bloody episode in the island’s recent past. His supporters believe he brought peace by aggressively snuffing out the Tamil extremists who wanted to divide the island. To his detractors, he is guilty of war crimes and even genocide.
In 2009, the Sri Lankan army surrounded the Tamil stronghold of Jaffna and killed Tamil Tiger Chief Vilupillai Prabhakaran and thousands of his fighters. According to UN estimates, about 40 000 Tamils were killed in a display of unbridled savagery before the Sri Lankan Army declared victory. The UN Human Rights Council is going to submit its report next month, which could start the process of initiating action against Rajapaksa and his family for war crimes.
Rajapaksa is also being drawn into an investigation regarding the disappearance of a national rugby star three years ago, Wasim Thajuddin, whose charred body was exhumed at the behest of a judge. Thajuddin was allegedly tortured to death by the ex-president’s guards. Rajapaksa’s son, who is a rugby player, is being accused of Thajuddin’s mysterious death.
As the past catches up with Rajapaksa, he probably wonders why he decided to go for early elections in January. In a recent interview, he acknowledged that this was his only regret. Until last November, Rajapaksa was on a strong wicket. He had little reason to order the elections except to load himself with powers of an executive president – a harebrained move recently replicated by another megalomaniac from Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Rajapaksa would have won, but for the unexpected challenge from a minister in his government, Sirisena, who became the rallying point for all the opposition parties and minorities fearful of the muscular nationalism displayed during the quelling of the Tamil uprising. They saw in Sirisena a candidate who could halt the authoritarian leader in his tracks.
After his unexpected defeat in January, Rajapaksa blamed India’s external intelligence agency, Research and Analysis Wing. He believed that India got upset after the Chinese presence began to burgeon in this island nation.
Also delighted at the outcome are the media, which were previously treated with a heavy hand. Some writers and editors were subjected to extreme violence, while others were forced to self-censor.
The new leadership have work to do. They have to build peace in a land soaked in blood. Years of mistrust between the majority Sinhalese and Tamils have seen violence, dispossession and displacement.
Wickremesinghe has invited all Sri Lankans to “join hands together to build a civilised society, build a consensual government and create a new country”.
He would also hope Rajapaksa heeds this call.