DICTATORS RISE BUT PEOPLE ARE FIGHTING BACK

BY NOW it’s old news that the world is living through a retreat of democracy. For a dozen consecutive years, the number of countries where liberty has declined has exceeded those where it has expanded, according to Freedom House. Autocrats are stepping up repression; populist movements are rising in Europe and the US. China and Russia are offering new models of hi-tech dictatorship.

The drift augurs ill for human governance in the 21st century. That’s why it’s encouraging that an unexpected and under-reported counter-trend has appeared in the summer of 2019. Mass movements of people resisting the new authoritarianism have been popping up across the world.

In Hong Kong, the largest demonstrations since the restoration of Chinese sovereignty in 1997 have rocked the city, forcing the authorities to withdraw legislation that would have critically weakened the rule of law.

In Central and Eastern Europe, a host of countries have seen huge anti-government protests aimed at corruption or creeping authoritarianism.

And in Africa, persistent prodemocracy street movements have continued in Sudan and Algeria even after the ousting of entrenched rulers.

True, decisive results so far have been limited. This month, the Sudanese military signed a deal with civilian groups setting up a joint governing council and laying out a three-year transition to democracy. But the military will rule for the first 21 months, and many suspect it will seek to derail the process.

Algerian protesters are demanding free elections in six months, but their generals remain resistant.

Following popular protests, Moldova and Slovakia have new leaders committed to rooting out criminality, and Romania’s once-dominant politician has been sent to prison.

But demonstrations demanding the removal of corrupt and thuggish governments in the Czech Republic and Georgia have yet to succeed.

Though Hong Kong’s Civil Human Rights Front has forced a tactical retreat by the Chinese regime of Xi Jinping, its longer-term prospects look cloudy at best.

What all this means, according to Larry Diamond, a Stanford University scholar who studies democracy, is that “we are perched at a volatile and possibly historic moment” – and much depends on how the US and other established democracies respond.

“Forthright rhetoric and vigorous diplomatic and aid engagement could tip some of these countries in a democratic direction,” he told me.

“But if what autocrats see is Western apathy or pure realpolitik, they will judge that they have plenty of space to get as nasty as they need to.”

So far the US record has been mixed: it depends on whether President Donald Trump, a friend to strongmen and populists, has weighed in. Where he hasn’t, as in Sudan and Moldova, US envoys have played a positive role.

One joined with other outside powers in inducing the Sudanese army to accept the power-sharing deal with the civilian opposition.

Another helped persuade Moldova’s dominant oligarch to accept a reformist government.

In Hong Kong, on the other hand, a plan by the outgoing US consul to deliver a speech in support of the protest movement was squelched by the State Department.

While Trump is president, the democratic recession is likely to continue.

Diehl is deputy editorial page editor of The Washington Post.

“We are perched on a volatile and possibly historic moment Larry Diamond STANFORD UNIVERSITY SCHOLAR