Boris wins and investors worry
100 days to go before new Conservative leader keeps promise of a no-deal Brexit
STERLING, already trading near its lowest in two years, was little moved yesterday after Boris Johnson won the contest to be Britain’s new prime minister, as investors worried whether he would lead Britain towards a no-deal Brexit.
The pound gradually recovered from early losses and briefly edged back into positive territory against the US dollar after Johnson won the Conservative Party leadership race.
But the move was minimal and analysts said it reflected a mini-relief-rally following weeks of losses as markets priced-in his victory.
Attention now turns to how many ministers opposed to Johnson’s tough line on Brexit will resign in coming days, the make-up of his cabinet and the tone of initial negotiations between the man who was the face of the 2016 Brexit campaign and Brussels.
Johnson has said Britain will leave the EU on the October 31 deadline, even if no transitional arrangements are in place. That has panicked investors, who fear a no-deal Brexit will cause significant damage to Britain’s economy.
Johnson’s belligerent tone has taken sterling 2 percent lower against the dollar this month, and it has depreciated in 11 weeks out of the past 12.
“It will be a very Brexiteer cabinet and markets are set up for that.
“We have roughly 100 days until October 31 to sort this out; it seems unlikely,” said David Zahn, head of European fixed income at Franklin Templeton.
“What we’ve seen from the new European (Commission) head is that nothing will be changed, it seems like we are headed towards a no-deal Brexit. If both leaders are so entrenched, is there much chance of an extension? This materially increases the no-deal Brexit chances, and sterling is pricing this.”
Two junior ministers have already quit over Johnson’s plans, and finance minister Philip Hammond and justice minister David Gauke have both said they plan to resign before they are sacked.
The pound traded at $1.2451, down 0.2 percent and more or less where it stood before news of Johnson’s victory. Sterling hit a 27-month low of $1.2382 last week.
Against the euro it weakened 0.3 percent at 89.585 pence.
Rallying British stock markets were little moved, while gilt yields rose marginally after the result, but remained near three-week lows.
Sterling implied volatility gauges – a measure of expected price swings in the pound – have risen to their highest since April as investors prepare for a rocky few months for the currency.
Recent weeks have seen investors sharply cut back on sterling positioning, with short positions growing to a 10-month high in the latest week, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed.
“(Sterling) is a ‘sell on rallies’, 100 percent. Regardless of how you slice the cake, we will either end up with a no-deal (Brexit) or a messy general election,” said Stephen Gallo, head of European FX strategy at BMO Capital Markets.
The British currency has also come under pressure in recent weeks from signs that the Bank of England may backtrack on policy-tightening signals.